FX.co ★ berta.hill | EUR/USD

#EUR/USD (H1-H4-D1)

Hello traders! Summing up this week's results for EUR/USD. It was a very emotional week, especially after the FOMC. What happened today and during the week? Today the pair continued to decline confidently. From the level of 1.1520-1.1530, we dropped even lower and settled around 1.1465-1.1475. Overall, we lost over 200 points during the week - quite significant. The news favored the dollar completely. The tough stance of the Fed and the absence of quick hints at easing gave strength to the dollar, and we saw a classic sell-off on euro news. The dollar strengthened, risky assets declined - all according to the textbook. SMC and structure

Today SMC clearly dominated. On H4 and H1, we broke an important local minimum, took liquidity below 1.1500, and confidently continued downwards. This is a clear BOS in the bearish direction. Currently, the price is in a strong downward impulse, with decent volumes on the decline. Wave structure In my analysis, we are currently in the 3rd wave of the downward impulse (or in wave C of a major correction). The fifth wave has not started yet, so the decline may continue. Fibonacci levels: 0.618 from the last rise - around 1.1440-1.1420 (a very strong zone). 0.786 - the area of 1.1380-1.1400. If we break 1.1440 with volume - the target of 1.1380 or 1.1350 becomes quite realistic. Local targets and reversal The nearest downside target is 1.1440-1.1420. The reversal or correction zone is 1.1500-1.1520 (former support, now resistance). If we bounce from here with good volume and make a new low - we can talk about a local correction to 1.1580 or 1.1600. How do I see the next week?

Next week, I expect the downward pressure to continue, but with consideration for the strong oversold conditions (RSI at 35 on D1, 39 on H4). Most likely, we will see an attempt to rebound to 1.1500 or 1.1520, and then a new move downwards to 1.1420 and below. I am currently on the sidelines with the euro, partially closed my sells. After such a move, it's better not to chase but to wait for confirmations. The market is nervous right now, easily catching false reversals. Overall, the bears are satisfied with this week, but the bulls are already starting to look at oversold levels. Be careful, don't catch falling knives based on emotions.