FX.co ★ dusty24 | GBP/USD

#GBP/USD (H1-H4-D1)

Hello colleagues! I'm here, looking at these GBP/USD charts and thinking - what a challenging week it has been! What happened today (June 19) Today the pair tried to bounce back after yesterday's significant drop. On H1, we can see the price fell to 1.3233 (green line), then retraced slightly. RSI on H1 is around 52 - neutral, MACD is almost flat. Volume is normal, but no explosion. Key levels being monitored by everyone, including myself: 1.3233-1.3305 - here we have a local support. 1.3375 and 1.3462 - red resistances above (yesterday's and the day before yesterday's highs). Today's bounce is more of a technical reaction in addition to the better-than-expected UK Retail Sales, which provided some support for the pound. However, the political situation in the UK and the overall strength of the dollar post-Fed are preventing the bulls from gaining momentum. Weekly summary

The week turned out bearish. From highs around 1.3460, the pair dropped almost 200 points and more. On D1, it is clear to see the break of the northern structure - the price broke previous lows and is currently below 1.3300. How did the news play out? The Fed on Wednesday and Thursday sent a hawkish signal (possible rate hike in 2026) - this was the main trigger for the drop. The dollar surged, all risk currencies declined. The BoE kept rates unchanged, but without a strong hawkish tone - the pound did not receive support. UK data (inflation, retail) were generally good, but the market ignored them against the backdrop of the dollar. Classic scenario: when the dollar is strong, news about the pound is secondary. SMC view: The big players clearly took liquidity above 1.3462, then pushed the price down, breaking the balance and OB. Currently, we are in a zone of imbalance, as well as demand around 1.3200. The local target for a reversal is a return to 1.3375 or 1.3462 (FVG or previous OB). If we confidently break south 1.3230 - we will head towards 1.3160 or 1.3100 (a deeper correction). The market is currently aiming to fill imbalances to the downside, but dollar overbought conditions may lead to a bounce. Waves and Fibonacci:

Based on wave theory on D1 and H4, we are most likely in corrective wave 4 (or C wave of ABC) of a larger upward cycle that started earlier in 2026. The impulsive 3rd wave upwards ended around 1.3500 and above, now in a correction phase. The price is currently testing the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels from the last upward impulse. The local target for the end of the correction is around 1.3160 and possibly 1.3000 (if deeper), or a softer bounce from 1.3230 and a return to 1.3400 and above to start the 5th wave. If we hold above 1.3230 - chances of an upward reversal increase. Below - we continue downwards. What to expect next week? I believe there will be continued volatility, but with an attempt at stabilization. If the dollar weakens slightly (softer US data) - we expect a bounce to 1.3300-1.3400. But the overall sentiment is bearish until key levels are broken to the upside. I am not entering large positions without confirmation. The market is currently nervous - UK politics and US macro can bring surprises. Keep an eye on 1.3230 like your life depends on it. Break below - look for shorts, bounce - longs targeting 1.3375. Good luck to everyone, trade wisely, and don't forget your stops.