FX.co ★ clare.morissette | NZDCAD

Currency pair NZDCAD – W1 chart. At the moment, for this rather exotic currency pair I think it makes sense to look specifically at this higher timeframe. The amplitude of price swings was not very large in the past year 2025, so I don’t see any point in looking at a smaller scale. Here on the higher timeframe we need to determine the priority direction of trading, so that on the lower timeframes we only consider setups in the priority direction. There is no clearly pronounced trending move here, but there is still a downside bias in the wave structure, which is building its sequence downward. The MACD indicator is also in the lower sell zone. I see a descending channel that can be drawn here and a three-wave formation, the third of the third. That is, the third wave did not start immediately when in spring 2025 the price broke down; there was a deep pullback and then another downside wave. The last time in 2025 the price bounced down from the significant resistance level of 0.8005. It’s clear that this is not a perfectly precise level, but a resistance zone with some margin of error. All this described situation increases the chances of a further gradual decline. Accordingly, short trades on the lower timeframes also have better odds of a positive outcome. I assume that the price will continue to be pushed down within the current descending channel further into the area between 0.7683 and 0.7618. This is the area of the low of the distant 2022. The levels are drawn by closing prices and by the wick. In terms of pips, there aren’t that many left to the indicated zone; sometimes this pair “wakes up” and moves more briskly than usual, quickly reaching significant highs or lows. The first week of June showed a significant decline from the top of the range and a candlestick pattern formed – a bearish engulfing. This implied further downside, which is what we’re seeing. I don’t really know what sense there is in trading this pair, the spread is wide and the moves are basically nothing, you could say. And if you get stuck in this pair, the swap will surely be very large. But overall there is a decline, we are heading below this year’s low.