FX.co ★ KHALISA | Gold, XAUUSD

Trading Journal Wednesday, July 1, 2026 XAU/USD Market Analysis

Good morning, fellow traders. I hope yesterday's trading yielded satisfactory results and that you achieved your profit targets. In this morning's journal, I'd like to discuss the movement of gold (XAU/USD), which has begun to show interesting movement after a period of consolidation. This analysis uses a combination of Moving Average, Bollinger Bands, and MACD indicators to identify trend direction and identify potential entry opportunities. From the daily timeframe, the downtrend remains quite strong. The price is still moving below the middle Bollinger Band, while the Bollinger Band is also pointing downward. This indicates that bearish momentum continues to dominate the market. Furthermore, the price's position below the 50-day Moving Average further strengthens the indication that the downtrend is not over. Additional confirmation comes from the MACD indicator, which is still moving below the signal line, with a weakening histogram. This indicates that selling pressure still outweighs buying pressure. Nevertheless, it's still important to anticipate the possibility of sideways market movement or consolidation ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data release, given that we're now entering the beginning of the month, which typically brings increased caution among market participants. Moving to the H4 timeframe, the price surge, which had reached 4,086, failed to continue its upward movement toward the supply zone around 4,121. Instead, the price experienced strong rejection, falling back below the psychological 4,000 level. This reaction indicates that selling pressure is beginning to dominate again. The bearish signal on the H4 timeframe is also reinforced by the MACD, which has again fallen below the signal line. Furthermore, the price remains below the middle Bollinger Band and below the 50 and 100 Moving Averages. The combination of these three indicators confirms that the potential for a continuation of the downtrend is still quite high, making a sell-on-rally scenario more attractive than seeking long positions. In conclusion, analysis on both the Daily and H4 timeframes indicates that XAU/USD remains in a bearish trend. Therefore, today's trading plan focuses on seeking sell opportunities. The primary entry area is around 4,050, while a secondary entry alternative is in the supply zone at 4,121 if the price pulls back. The downside target is around 3,925, while the stop-loss should be placed above the supply area, around 4,223, to anticipate a stronger reversal. That concludes my trading journal for today. I hope this analysis can provide additional reference material and discussion material for everyone. I also look forward to hearing other opinions and perspectives in the discussion section. Thank you for reading, and may we all be given the best trading opportunities and achieve maximum results. See you again in the next journal update.