FX.co ★ Physicist | EUR/USD

H1 Chart Structure and Key Trend The EURUSD H1 chart from 24 June to 2 July 2026 shows a clear downtrend that has recently entered a consolidation or corrective bounce phase. Price began near 1.14875 on 24 June 10:00 and declined steadily, forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows down to 1.13191 by 2 July 10:00. The listed levels – 1.14875 → 1.14710 → 1.14545 → 1.14380 → 1.14206 → 1.14050 → 1.13885 → 1.13720 → 1.13555 → 1.13390 → 1.13191 – confirm persistent selling pressure. However, the most recent candles have bounced back to around 1.14206 (current bid/ask 1.14214–1.14235), breaking above the immediate descending trendline. This suggests a short-term corrective rally within the larger bearish structure. Resistance is now defined by the previous swing highs near 1.14380–1.14545, while support sits at 1.13191 and the recent consolidation low around 1.13720. Volume is present (1283 contracts), indicating moderate participation. Technical Indicators and Momentum During the downtrend, moving averages would have been bearishly stacked (short below long). The recent bounce has likely pushed price back toward the 20‑period moving average, which may act as dynamic resistance. The RSI probably dipped below 30 near the 1.13191 low, then recovered to near 50–55, indicating that the bounce has some strength but is not yet overbought. MACD would show a shrinking negative histogram, possibly with a bullish crossover approaching, but both lines remain below zero for now. The failure to break above 1.14380–1.14545 would keep the overall bearish structure intact. The volume on the bounce (1283) is modest, suggesting that buying interest is not overwhelming. Trading Plan – Entry, Stop Loss, and Targets The highest‑probability trade is to sell on a retest of resistance. Look for price to approach 1.14380–1.14545 (the levels from 26‑29 June). Enter short near 1.14450 with a stop loss above the most recent swing high at 1.14710. First target at 1.14050, second at 1.13885. A breakdown below the consolidation low of 1.13720 would offer a momentum entry; place stop above 1.14206 and target 1.13555 and then 1.13390. Avoid long positions unless price reclaims and holds above 1.14710 on an H1 closing basis – that would signal a short‑term trend change. For traders already short from higher levels, consider adding to the position on the current bounce near 1.14200–1.14450. Risk‑to‑reward on the pullback short is approximately 1:2. Summary EURUSD on the H1 timeframe remains in a downtrend from 1.14875 to 1.13191, with a corrective bounce currently near 1.14206. The bounce is likely to be sold into resistance near 1.14380–1.14545. The bias is bearish as long as price stays below 1.14710. A clean break below 1.13720 would resume the downtrend toward 1.13191 and lower. Conversely, a break above 1.14710 would signal a short‑term reversal. Traders should sell rallies into resistance or wait for a confirmed breakdown below the consolidation low. Patience for the bounce to exhaust improves risk management. Overall, every bounce remains a selling opportunity until a higher high is made above 1.14710. Next support lies at 1.13000 and then 1.12800. The modest volume suggests that the bounce may fade, supporting the bearish outlook.