FX.co ★ skyboy | GBP/USD

GBP/USD Weekly Market Outlook – Weekly Candle Close Analysis As the market approaches the Weekly candle close, GBP/USD has reached one of the most important technical decision points on the higher timeframe. The pair remains in a long-term bullish market structure, consistently printing higher highs and higher lows since its major reversal from the 2023 demand zone. However, the latest rally has now entered a significant Weekly Resistance Zone around 1.3250–1.3500, where price has already started to lose bullish momentum. At the same time, the H1 chart confirms that buyers are struggling to sustain prices above intraday resistance after a sharp impulsive move. The combination of higher-timeframe resistance and lower-timeframe exhaustion suggests that institutional traders may be preparing for a short-term correction before the broader trend resumes. Higher Timeframe Structure (Weekly Chart) The Weekly chart continues to favor a bullish long-term structure. Several important observations stand out: The market has been forming consistent Higher Highs and Higher Lows. The previous liquidity sweep below the 2023 lows triggered aggressive institutional buying. Price has respected the Weekly Bullish Order Block throughout the recovery. Buyers remain in overall control of the macro trend. Despite this bullish structure, price is now testing a historical resistance area that has previously acted as a major supply zone. The current Weekly candle is showing rejection from this region, making the close particularly important. Unless buyers can reclaim higher levels next week, a corrective decline becomes increasingly likely. Resistance Analysis The strongest resistance is located between 1.3250 and 1.3500. This area includes several bearish confluences: Weekly Resistance Zone Historical supply area Previous distribution region Institutional profit-taking zone On the H1 timeframe, price has also failed to hold above the recent breakout and is beginning to consolidate beneath resistance. This behavior often signals weakening bullish momentum. Support Analysis The nearest higher-timeframe support remains around the previous breakout region. If sellers gain control, the first technical objective becomes: 1.3220–1.3180 A deeper correction could eventually target the H1 Bullish Order Block around: 1.3160–1.3140 This demand zone aligns well with the overall bullish Weekly structure and would represent a healthier location for institutional buyers to re-enter the market.

Smart Money Concept (SMC) Analysis From a Smart Money perspective, the current market structure is particularly interesting. The Weekly chart shows that institutions have successfully driven price higher while maintaining bullish structure. However, the H1 chart reveals something different. Recent price action has: Swept short-term buy-side liquidity. Entered a clear intraday resistance zone. Begun showing rejection from premium pricing. This often indicates that institutions are taking profits after the recent rally while allowing price to retrace toward discounted demand before continuing the broader trend. The current H1 resistance therefore represents an ideal distribution area rather than a fresh buying zone. Liquidity Analysis Liquidity continues to support the bearish intraday outlook. The market has already: Swept recent buy-side liquidity. Printed a sharp impulsive rally. Failed to sustain prices above resistance. Meanwhile, sell-side liquidity remains untouched beneath current price. Smart Money frequently rotates price from completed buy-side liquidity toward resting sell-side liquidity, increasing the probability of a corrective move during the coming sessions. Volume Analysis The strongest buying volume occurred during the impulsive breakout. However, after reaching resistance, bullish candles became noticeably weaker while selling pressure increased. This shift often reflects: Institutional profit-taking. Buyer exhaustion. Distribution near higher-timeframe resistance. Unless new buying volume enters the market, upside momentum may remain limited.

Fundamental Outlook For Next Week Next week's volatility is likely to be driven by several high-impact economic events. Traders should closely monitor: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and labor market data. Federal Reserve policy expectations. Bank of England (BoE) comments and economic releases. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strength. Any unexpected geopolitical developments affecting risk sentiment. If USD strength continues, it could provide additional confirmation for the technical bearish correction shown on both the Weekly and H1 charts. High-Probability Trading Plan Trade Bias SELL GBP/USD The best opportunity is to trade with the short-term correction while respecting the higher-timeframe bullish structure. Entry Zone Look for bearish confirmation around the current H1 resistance between: 1.3330 – 1.3355 This area coincides with: Intraday Resistance Recent rejection candles Institutional distribution zone Weekly resistance confluence Avoid selling after a large bearish candle. Wait for price to reject resistance or form a bearish confirmation pattern. Stop Loss Place the stop loss safely above 1.3385–1.3400, beyond the recent swing high and resistance zone. This allows sufficient room for normal market volatility while protecting against a genuine bullish breakout. Take Profit Primary Target: 1.3220 Final Target: 1.3160–1.3140 H1 Bullish Order Block (Demand Zone) This target aligns with the most significant downside liquidity visible on the H1 chart and offers a strong risk-to-reward opportunity. Trade Management Once price breaks below the first support: Move the stop loss to breakeven to protect capital. Let the remaining position run toward the Bullish Order Block if bearish momentum remains strong. Avoid adding to losing positions if price unexpectedly breaks above resistance. Discipline and patience are essential, particularly around the Weekly candle close when volatility can increase. Weekly Forecast Summary The GBP/USD Weekly chart continues to maintain a bullish long-term structure, but the pair is currently testing a major historical resistance zone where buying momentum has started to fade. The H1 timeframe reinforces this view, showing rejection from resistance after a liquidity sweep and signs of short-term distribution. While the broader trend remains constructive, the current technical picture favors a controlled bearish correction before any potential continuation of the longer-term uptrend. As long as price remains below the 1.3330–1.3355 resistance zone, sellers have the advantage in the short term, with downside targets around 1.3220 and the 1.3160–1.3140 Bullish Order Block. For traders following Smart Money Concepts, patience is key. Waiting for confirmation at institutional resistance rather than chasing price offers the highest-probability setup. If the market reacts as expected, this pullback could provide a cleaner buying opportunity from demand later in the week while respecting the overall bullish Weekly structure