FX.co ★ Konnect2fx | CL/Crude Oil

Crude Oil Technical and Fundamental Views: From my view of the 4H chart, WTI crude oil is still moving inside a well-defined bearish channel, and I believe sellers continue to control the overall market structure. The earlier BOS confirmed that the previous bullish structure was broken, which shifted momentum to the downside. Since then, price has respected both the upper and lower boundaries of the channel, creating a sequence of lower highs and lower lows that supports the bearish trend. I can also see that the recent recovery from the lower part of the channel has brought price back toward the marked LIQ POL area, where the descending red trendline and the upper boundary of the channel meet. This creates a strong confluence zone that may attract fresh selling pressure. The SBR ZONE around 68.70 has also become an important level because previous support is now acting as resistance. I think buyers have managed to produce a temporary bounce, but they have not changed the overall structure. As long as price remains below the upper trendline and fails to close above the resistance area with strong bullish momentum, I still see the recent upward movement as a corrective rally instead of the beginning of a new uptrend. The projected path on the chart also suggests that liquidity may first be collected around the LIQ POL before sellers attempt another move lower. I will watch the reaction carefully because bearish rejection candles, long upper wicks, or lower highs on smaller timeframes would strengthen the probability of another decline. The market is also respecting the sell channel very well, showing that sellers continue to defend important technical levels. Until a confirmed breakout happens, I prefer to follow the existing trend instead of expecting a major bullish reversal. The current structure remains technically weak, and every rally toward resistance deserves close attention before making any bullish expectations.

Looking ahead, I think the bearish scenario shown on the chart continues to have the higher probability while price stays inside the descending channel. The projected move indicates that after completing the liquidity collection near the LIQ POL and resistance trendline, WTI may resume its decline toward the lower boundary of the sell channel. If sellers regain momentum from this area, the first objective would be to break below the recent swing lows before extending the decline toward the projected target near 61.00. That target also aligns with the lower boundary of the channel, making it an important technical objective if bearish momentum increases. I will also monitor the behavior around the SBR ZONE because a clear rejection from this level would add more confidence to the bearish outlook. However, if buyers manage to push price above the upper channel resistance and secure strong 4H candle closes above both the descending trendline and the LIQ POL area, then the current bearish structure would begin to weaken. In that situation, I would become more cautious because a successful breakout could open the way for a deeper recovery. Even so, the chart currently provides no confirmed evidence that such a breakout has happened. Besides the technical picture, I also keep an eye on fundamental events because crude oil is highly sensitive to global economic conditions, OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions, US crude inventory data, and changes in demand expectations. Any of these events can increase volatility and either support or temporarily delay the technical setup shown on the chart. For now, I continue to favor selling opportunities near resistance while respecting proper risk management, as the overall market structure still supports the bearish trend and the projected downside path remains consistent with the price action displayed on this chart.