FX.co ★ vbahringer | EUR/AUD

EUR/AUD H4 Timeframe

Based on the EUR/AUD chart on the H4 timeframe, the overall condition still shows a bullish bias, although in the last few sessions price has entered a corrective phase after failing to maintain upward momentum at the top area. The price structure is still showing a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is the main characteristic of an uptrend. This is also reinforced by the fact that price is still moving above the 100-period Moving Average (MA) and the 200-period Moving Average (MA). Both moving averages still have an upward slope, with the 100 MA positioned above the 200 MA. This arrangement indicates that the medium- to long-term trend is still under buyers’ control, so the current correction is more likely to be a retracement before the main trend resumes. In terms of price action, EUR/AUD experienced a fairly strong rally starting from early June. This rise took price from the 1.6200 area up to a peak around 1.6617. After touching that high, selling pressure began to emerge, causing price to gradually move lower. However, this correction has not changed the bullish structure because price is still holding above key support areas and has not broken below either the 100 MA or the 200 MA. In fact, the chart shows that buying interest started to appear as price approached the 100 MA area, indicating that this indicator is still acting as a fairly strong dynamic support. The nearest horizontal support is around 1.6421, which is currently an important area because it coincides with the current price zone and is not far from the 100 MA. This level has the potential to become a bounce point if selling pressure starts to subside. As long as price is able to hold above this area, the opportunity to continue the uptrend remains open. If this support is broken convincingly, attention will then shift to the 1.6299 support. This area is important because it previously acted as resistance that was successfully broken and then turned into support. In addition, this level is also relatively close to the 200 MA, which strengthens the likelihood of renewed buying interest if price undergoes a deeper correction. If selling pressure continues and breaks below 1.6299, the next support lies around 1.6187. This area is one of the starting points of the bullish rally in early June and forms a fairly strong horizontal support. A break below this level would signal that bullish momentum is starting to weaken and increase the risk of the trend structure shifting to neutral or even bearish. The next major support is around 1.6109, which is the lowest area on the chart and represents the last boundary for the medium-term bullish scenario. On the resistance side, the 1.6556 area is the first barrier to watch. This level is an area that previously acted as a consolidation zone before price continued its rise toward the peak. If price manages to break back above this resistance with a strong H4 candle close, the upside potential toward the next resistance at 1.6617 will become more open. The 1.6617 level is the highest peak on the chart and the key resistance that will determine the continuation of the uptrend. A breakout above this area will create a new higher high and confirm that the bullish trend is still intact, with room for further gains. The movement of the 100 MA and 200 MA provides a fairly constructive picture. The 100 MA is above the 200 MA with a positive slope, indicating that upward momentum still dominates. In addition, price remaining above both moving averages shows that buyers still have the upper hand over sellers. As long as price does not consistently break below the 100 MA, the current correction can still be viewed as a normal process within an uptrend. Even if price corrects down toward the 200 MA, that area has the potential to become a new accumulation zone for market participants who are still anticipating a continuation of the bullish trend. Even so, traders still need to be aware of the possibility of a further correction if price fails to hold above the 1.6421 support. Failure to defend this area could trigger additional selling toward 1.6299. However, as long as price remains above the 200 MA, the medium-term bullish structure has not undergone a significant change. Conversely, if price is able to break back above the 1.6556 resistance, this will be a signal that selling pressure is starting to subside and buyers are regaining control of the market. Overall, the technical analysis of EUR/AUD on the H4 timeframe still shows a generally positive outlook. Price is positioned above the 100 MA and 200 MA, and the configuration of both moving averages remains bullish, indicating that the main trend is still pointing upward. The ongoing correction is more reflective of a consolidation phase after a fairly long rally rather than the start of a trend reversal. As long as the 1.6421–1.6299 support zone continues to hold, the upside potential toward the 1.6556 resistance and a retest of the 1.6617 level remains quite high. Therefore, the main focus for market participants in the next few sessions is to observe whether price can maintain the dynamic support area around the 100 MA and rebuild momentum to continue the bullish trend that has been in place since early June.