FX.co ★ Jackroay | AUD/USD

AUD/USD M30 Technical Analysis The AUD/USD M30 chart shows that the market experienced a significant Market Structure Shift (MSS) after the strong bearish decline from the previous swing high. Once price reached the major demand area, buyers stepped in and rejected lower prices, creating a series of higher lows. I believe this shift is the first indication that bearish momentum is weakening and buyers are gradually taking control. Although the trend has not yet turned into a strong bullish trend, the recent price action suggests that the market is attempting to build a new bullish structure. The latest candles continue to hold above the previous intraday support, showing that buyers are defending their positions. Break of Structure (BOS) The Break of Structure (BOS) marked on the chart confirms that buyers successfully violated the previous bearish structure. This breakout indicates that liquidity above previous highs has started attracting market participants. However, the current price is testing a significant resistance area around 0.7000, where previous reactions occurred. I will closely monitor whether price can achieve a clean candle close above this resistance because that would validate the bullish continuation. If the breakout fails, sellers may regain short-term control. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Several Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) remain visible on the chart. These imbalance zones often attract price before the next directional move. The lower FVG has already provided support during the recovery, showing that institutional buying interest may have entered from this region. Another FVG near the current price may serve as a short-term magnet if the market retraces before continuing upward. I prefer waiting for price to revisit one of these imbalance zones before considering fresh buying opportunities because they frequently offer better risk-to-reward entries. Order Block & FVG + Order Block The highlighted Order Blocks (OB) represent institutional accumulation and distribution zones. The lower bullish Order Block successfully supported the recent rally, confirming its importance. In addition, the combined FVG + Order Block area forms a high-probability demand zone. This confluence increases the likelihood that buyers will defend the region if price pulls back. I consider this area one of the strongest technical supports on the chart because multiple Smart Money concepts align there. Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) & Sell Side Liquidity (SSL) The Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) above previous highs has already attracted price during the recent upward movement. Liquidity sweeps are common before institutional reversals or continuations. Meanwhile, the Sell Side Liquidity (SSL) remains beneath recent swing lows and could become the next downside target if resistance rejects price. Markets often move from one liquidity pool to another, so traders should monitor whether price first collects the remaining buy-side liquidity before searching for sell-side liquidity below. Trend Line Liquidity (TLL) The marked Trend Line Liquidity (TLL) highlights where many retail traders may have positioned their stop-loss orders around the trendline. Institutional traders often push price through these areas to trigger stop orders before reversing or continuing the primary move. If price sweeps this liquidity and quickly returns above the trendline, it would strengthen the bullish outlook. Conversely, a sustained break below the trendline could signal renewed bearish momentum. Volume & Liquidity Behavior The volume histogram shows that the strongest trading activity occurred during the sharp bearish decline and subsequent recovery. Increased volume near support indicates that larger participants may have accumulated long positions. During the latest advance toward resistance, volume remains moderate, suggesting buyers are still active but waiting for confirmation before committing aggressively. Rising volume during a breakout above 0.7000 would provide stronger evidence that institutional participation is supporting the move. Overall Trading Outlook Overall, the chart presents a cautiously bullish outlook while price remains above the bullish Order Block and the FVG support. The recent MSS and BOS suggest improving market sentiment, but the resistance around 0.7000–0.7010 remains the immediate obstacle. I would avoid chasing the market directly into resistance and instead wait for either a confirmed breakout with strong volume or a controlled pullback into the FVG and Order Block confluence. If buyers successfully clear the Buy Side Liquidity, the pair could extend toward higher resistance levels. However, failure to hold above current support could trigger a liquidity sweep toward the Sell Side Liquidity zone before the next major directional move develops. Patience and confirmation remain essential because the market is approaching a decisive area where institutional order flow is likely to determine the next trend.