FX.co ★ KHALISA | XAU/USD

Good evening. It's a pleasure to be able to visit your journal. This time, I'd like to join in the discussion and share my views on the movement of the Gold (XAUUSD) market, based on my technical analysis. Looking at the price movement on the Daily timeframe, XAUUSD is currently moving within a relatively narrow range. For more than a week, the price has only fluctuated between the 4000 support and 4120 resistance levels. To date, there has been no confirmation of a breakout that could determine the next trend direction. This condition indicates that the market is in a consolidation or sideways phase, where the strength of buyers and sellers still appears fairly balanced. In my opinion, the market is currently waiting for a truly strong fundamental catalyst to drive price movements more aggressively. One of the most potential momentum triggers for volatility is the release of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. As is often the case, this data can generate very large price movements, potentially triggering the price to break out of the ongoing consolidation area. However, looking at the MACD indicator on the Daily timeframe, I see indications that buyer sentiment is starting to become more dominant. This is evident from the MACD histogram, which continues to rise consistently above the signal line and is slowly approaching the zero line. Although the price continues to fluctuate within a limited range, the steadily rising histogram movement indicates an accumulation process by buyers. If this assumption is correct, then when an upward breakout occurs, buyers will have secured a relatively ideal price position, potentially driving a stronger rally. Meanwhile, on the H4 timeframe, market conditions are still showing a sideways pattern. Each time the price moves up, it is still held back by the supply or resistance area around 4120. Currently, the price is also still moving around the Middle Bollinger Band and the 50-day moving average (EMA), so the potential for an increase or decrease remains relatively balanced. From the H4 MACD indicator, the histogram appears to have fallen back below the signal line and remains below the zero line. This indicates weakening bullish momentum, opening the opportunity for the price to retest the support area around 4000. Given current market conditions, I believe the situation is less than ideal for entry without clear confirmation. Therefore, my trading plan is to wait for a breakout to confirm the trend direction. I will consider a buy position if the price successfully breaks through the 4200 resistance area, while a sell position will be considered if the price breaks through the 3950 area. I orient this trading plan more towards a medium- to long-term strategy, so when I enter a position, I will use a moderate stop-loss and maintain risk management to ensure the position has sufficient room to follow the trend until the target is reached. That's my view on the current gold market conditions. I hope this simple analysis can provide additional reference points for discussions. Of course, I'm also open to hearing from others with differing perspectives, so we can exchange knowledge and broaden our horizons. May we all continue to have smooth and consistent trading results.