FX.co ★ Fex | GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Forecast: Cable Eyes 1.3500 Resistance Ahead of Key US Labor Data The currency pair displays sustained resilience on the daily timeframe, holding firm around the 1.3449 level as monetary policy divergence shapes the fundamental landscape. The Bank of England (BoE) recently maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, yet a hawkish vote split—where three Monetary Policy Committee members favored an immediate 25 basis point rate hike—highlighted persistent inflation risks and sticky wage pressures across the UK economy. Conversely, the Federal Reserve held interest rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range, but dovish commentary from central bank leadership weighed on the US Dollar Index (DXY), keeping it subdued below the key 100 threshold. While global risk sentiment and geopolitical developments provide background influence, incoming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) labor data remains the primary high-impact macroeconomic trigger. Soft labor data would likely reinforce market sentiment for further Fed easing, elevating Cable's medium-term trajectory. Overall, market sentiment remains cautiously bullish, anchored by the BoE’s tighter policy bias relative to the Fed.

The GBP/USD forex technical outlook reflects an intact upward trend on the daily chart, though price action is testing significant overhead supply near the 1.3500 psychological barrier. Concurrently, Bollinger Bands indicate rising volatility, with the price hugging the upper band; a clean daily close above 1.3500 could open the door for a bullish breakout toward multi-month targets. Moving average analysis further reinforces this bullish GBP/USD forecast, as the short-term 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) trades comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. This alignment creates strong dynamic support levels on dips, suggesting that any temporary pullback toward key support and resistance zones will likely attract dip-buyers looking for trend continuation. Key Levels & Takeaways: Key Support Levels: 1.3400, 1.3350, 1.3280 Key Resistance Levels: 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3620 Trend Direction: Cautiously Bullish Indicator Summary: Alligator Indicator: Bullish alignment with Lips, Teeth, and Jaw expanding upward, denoting active trend expansion. Bollinger Bands: Price pressing against the upper band with expanding outer channels, signaling potential breakout momentum. Moving Averages: Short-term 20-day EMA positioning above 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reinforcing structural bullish momentum.