FX.co ★ Der | GBP/USD

The daily (D1) GBP/USD chart spanning mid-April to early August 2026 presents a clear transition from a primary five-wave bearish impulse into an ascending corrective structure, with spot prices consolidating tightly around 1.34900 following a compressed session framed by an opening of 1.34879, a high of 1.34932, and a low of 1.34873. The initial macro phase, extending from mid-April through June 23, was defined by a clean, five-wave downward expansion from the 1.36569 peak to an exhaustion low near 1.31819. A pivotal structural breakdown occurred in mid-May when a large-bodied bearish candle with minimal lower wick severed critical support levels at 1.35144 and 1.34194, driving price action directly into the lower Bollinger Band. Subsequent attempts to establish a base between 1.33719 and 1.34600 in late May ultimately failed to reclaim the short-to-medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)—represented by the dynamic red and blue lines—thereby confirming persistent institutional selling pressure until the trend reached a climax at 1.31819. The second structural phase, running from June 23 to July 15, initiated a major recovery sequence characterized by a clear series of ascending structural lows at 1.31819, 1.32769, 1.33719, and 1.34194, alongside higher highs at 1.33719, 1.34600, and a peak near 1.35300. During this advance, GBP/USD systematically reclaimed the red and blue EMAs, forcing them to curl upward into dynamic support while the Bollinger Bands transitioned from a wide bearish expansion into an expanding bullish channel that guided price into the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire mid-April sell-off before a profit-taking rejection printed a long upper wick on July 15. The third phase, spanning July 16 through August 4, has materialized as a symmetrical consolidation and retest sequence above rising dynamic moving average supports.

After retracing from 1.35300 to defend the 1.32769 higher low, Cable has spent nearly two weeks trapped within a narrow structural corridor bounded by 1.34194 and 1.35144. This prolonged compression has caused the Bollinger Bands to contract significantly while the short-to-medium-term EMAs have flattened around 1.34400, establishing a crucial decision pivot for medium-term order flow. From a key levels perspective, immediate daily support rests at 1.34873, followed closely by the EMA cluster at 1.34400 and the critical structural demand zone between 1.34194 and 1.33719. A daily close beneath 1.34194 would invalidate the sequence of higher lows from June, opening the door for a deeper corrective slide toward 1.32769 and potentially retesting the major 1.31819 structural floor that must hold to preserve the macro recovery framework. On the topside, immediate resistance is anchored at 1.34932, guarding the pivotal horizontal resistance level at 1.35144. This 1.35144 barrier carries massive technical confluence, as it aligns with the July swing high, the upper Bollinger Band boundary, and the prominent May breakdown level. A confirmed daily close above 1.35144 would validate the onset of corrective wave C, exposing subsequent supply targets at 1.35619 and 1.36094, which correspond to the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels as well as major historical breakdown nodes from April. Technical confluence heavily supports this constructive outlook, given that price action has maintained acceptance above the upward-sloping red and blue EMAs for 18 consecutive sessions, while implied indicator readings show ample room for further upside expansion before reaching overbought territory. On the fundamental front, a softening US Dollar alongside shifting expectations surrounding Bank of England policy continue to underpin Sterling, where any positive domestic inflation catalyst could provide the necessary momentum to force a breakout above 1.35144. In the primary bullish scenario, holding above 1.34873 and achieving a daily close over 1.35144 opens a clear path toward 1.35619 and 1.36094, confirming a broader structural regime change. Conversely, a rejection at 1.35144 followed by a close beneath 1.33719 would signal a failure of the recovery rally, shifting the directional bias back toward 1.32769 and potentially threatening a retest of 1.31819. Overall, the technical landscape favors buyers so long as 1.34194 remains protected on a daily closing basis.