FX.co ★ Jackroay | CL/Crude Oil

USOILm (CRUDE OIL) – M15 MARKET STRUCTURE & SMART MONEY ANALYSIS 1. Overall Market Structure The USOILm M15 chart shows a strong bullish development from the lower area around 75.14–75.53 toward the upper resistance zone around 78.08–78.30. The market initially formed a clear Swing Low near the 75.14–75.53 region and then produced a Strong Bullish Move. This upward expansion indicates that buyers were able to take control after price reacted from the lower demand area. I consider the early bullish displacement important because it created the foundation for the later Break of Structure (BOS). Price did not simply move upward slowly; instead, it produced strong candles and broke previous swing points, showing increasing buying pressure. The chart therefore begins with a bullish structural environment. However, after reaching the higher region, the market started showing signs of hesitation. The recent candles near 78.08 are smaller and more compressed compared with the earlier bullish candles. This tells me that although buyers pushed price significantly higher, they are now facing strong opposition near the marked Resistance and Swing High. The overall structure remains bullish while price holds above important bullish areas, but the short-term movement requires caution because the market is trading directly underneath a major resistance level. 2. Swing Low & Bullish Order Block The Swing Low shown near 75.14–75.53 is one of the most important areas on the chart. From this zone, price generated a powerful upward expansion, which confirms that significant buying interest appeared around the lower levels. The green Bullish Order Block extends across a large portion of the lower chart and represents the demand area from which the bullish move developed. In Smart Money Concepts, an Order Block can be viewed as an area where institutional or large-volume activity may have occurred before a significant displacement. I would therefore treat this green zone as an important support area rather than an ordinary horizontal level. If price makes a deep retracement in the future, the Bullish Order Block could become an important reaction zone. The strength of the previous bullish move means buyers have already demonstrated their ability to defend this region. However, because the chart is currently far above this zone, it should not be assumed that price will immediately return there. The important point is that the bullish structure remains supported by this demand area unless the market produces a major bearish structural shift. 3. Strong Bullish Move The Strong Bullish Move between the Swing Low and the first BOS is one of the clearest signals on the chart. Price moved aggressively upward from the lower demand region and broke through previous short-term highs. This type of displacement demonstrates that buyers were not only participating but were able to dominate the order flow for a meaningful period. The strong candles indicate momentum and helped create the bullish structure visible on the M15 timeframe. I would use this move as confirmation that the market changed from a lower-level accumulation or recovery phase into a stronger bullish phase. The movement also created areas of imbalance, which later became marked as Fair Value Gaps. These FVGs are important because fast price movement often leaves inefficient price delivery behind. When price moves away rapidly, the market can later return to these areas to rebalance before continuing in the original direction. Therefore, the Strong Bullish Move should be studied together with the BOS and FVG zones rather than as an isolated signal. 4. First BOS – Break of Structure The first BOS appears after price breaks the previous swing high around the 77.5 region. This is an important bullish confirmation because the market successfully moved above an established structural high. A BOS generally suggests continuation in the direction of the prevailing trend, and here it supports the bullish interpretation. Price then continued toward the higher region and eventually produced another BOS near the 78.2 area. I see these structural breaks as evidence that buyers were progressively taking control of the market. The first BOS is especially important because it confirms that the strong bullish move was not merely a temporary spike. After breaking structure, price consolidated and created additional trading zones before eventually pushing higher. This behavior is consistent with a market that is building bullish structure through higher highs and higher lows. As long as these important structural points remain protected, the bullish bias remains valid. A decisive break below major protected lows would be required before I would consider the bullish structure seriously damaged. 5. Fair Value Gaps (FVG) The chart highlights several Fair Value Gap zones, including the blue FVG around the 76.7–77.0 region, another around the 76.5–77.0 region, and the latest FVG near 76.3–76.6. These areas represent price inefficiencies created during strong directional movement. The FVGs can become potential reaction or retracement zones if price returns to them. I would not automatically treat every FVG as a guaranteed support or resistance area. Instead, I would look for price action confirmation when price enters one of these zones. The latest FVG is particularly interesting because it formed after a sharp bearish displacement from the upper area. Price subsequently recovered from the lower region and moved back upward. This suggests that the latest FVG may remain relevant for short-term market structure. If price falls again and reacts strongly from this area, it could support another bullish attempt. On the other hand, if price breaks through the FVG with strong bearish candles, it would indicate that sellers are gaining more control over the short-term structure. 6. Bearish Order Block The red Bearish Order Block located approximately between 75.9 and 76.7 is another major zone shown on the chart. This area developed before the later bearish movement and can represent a region where selling pressure became significant. Price eventually moved downward from the upper structure and entered this broader area before finding support lower down. The Bearish Order Block is therefore important because it represents a potential supply region inside the larger market structure. I would watch this area carefully if price returns toward its upper boundaries after a bullish continuation. A strong rejection from the Bearish Order Block could create another short-term bearish reaction, while a clean bullish break and acceptance above it would weaken its resistance characteristics. Because the market has already moved significantly upward from this area, its importance depends on future price reaction. The order block should be combined with BOS, CHOCH, candle displacement, and liquidity behavior rather than used alone. 7. CHOCH – Change of Character The CHOCH around the 77.5 region is an important transition point on the chart. After the market experienced a bearish sequence from the upper area, price began showing evidence of changing character and eventually moved upward. The CHOCH indicates that the previous short-term bearish behavior was losing strength and that buyers were beginning to regain control. I consider this particularly useful because it explains the transition between the bearish retracement and the subsequent bullish recovery. After CHOCH, price expanded higher and eventually approached the major Swing High. This gives the chart a clear sequence: bullish expansion, bearish correction, CHOCH, and renewed bullish movement. However, a CHOCH alone does not guarantee unlimited continuation. The market still needs to confirm the new direction through further BOS and successful support reactions. In this chart, the later bullish expansion provides additional confirmation that the character change was meaningful. 8. Swing High & Resistance The current Swing High around 78.30 is the most important resistance reference on the chart. Price reached this region and then started consolidating near 78.08. The red Resistance line shows that sellers are defending the upper area. Several candles near the resistance zone demonstrate hesitation, and this suggests that buyers are currently struggling to achieve a clean breakout. I would consider 78.30 a key decision level. If price breaks above it with strong bullish displacement and closes convincingly above the resistance, that could confirm another bullish BOS and potentially open the way toward higher levels. However, repeated rejection from this region could produce a short-term pullback. The current consolidation beneath resistance means traders should avoid assuming that every bullish candle will immediately lead to a breakout. I would wait for confirmation rather than entering solely because price is close to the resistance. 9. Current Price Action The current price is shown around 78.086, directly beneath the resistance area. The recent structure contains relatively small candles compared with the earlier impulsive movement. This indicates compression and indecision. Buyers are still holding price near the highs, which is generally constructive, but sellers are repeatedly preventing a clean move above resistance. I see two main possibilities from this structure. The first is a bullish breakout where price clears the Swing High and confirms continuation with strong momentum. The second is a rejection that sends price toward the nearby lower support and FVG areas. The reaction after the resistance test will therefore be more important than the current position itself. If I were analyzing this structure, I would focus on candle closes, displacement, and whether a new BOS or bearish CHOCH develops after the rejection. 10. Bullish Continuation Scenariop For a bullish continuation, price needs to break and sustain above the marked Resistance around 78.30. A strong candle close above the Swing High would provide better confirmation than a temporary wick above it. After a breakout, I would prefer to see a retest where the previous resistance begins acting as support. If that happens, the market could establish another higher high and continue the existing bullish structure. The previous Strong Bullish Move and multiple BOS signals support this possibility. I would also monitor whether a new FVG forms during the breakout because such an imbalance could later become a continuation zone. The key idea is that bullish continuation requires confirmation rather than anticipation. If price simply spikes above resistance and immediately falls back below it, the breakout could become a liquidity sweep instead of a genuine structural breakout. 11. Bearish Rejection Scenario The bearish scenario begins if price repeatedly fails around 78.30 and produces strong rejection candles. A move below the recent short-term lows could increase the probability of a deeper retracement. In that situation, the latest FVG around 76.3–76.6 could become an important downside target or reaction area. If bearish momentum becomes stronger, price could eventually revisit the Bearish Order Block or deeper support regions. I would not call the entire market bearish immediately after a rejection because the larger structure remains supported by previous bullish BOS signals. A true bearish shift would require meaningful structural damage, such as a decisive break of important higher lows followed by bearish displacement. Therefore, I see a bearish rejection initially as a correction within the larger bullish structure unless the market confirms a deeper CHOCH. 12. Final Smart Money Conclusion Overall, the USOILm M15 chart currently shows a bullish-to-neutral structure near major resistance. The Strong Bullish Move from the Swing Low, the Bullish Order Block, multiple BOS signals, and the later CHOCH all demonstrate that buyers have played a major role in the recent market structure. At the same time, the current Swing High and Resistance around 78.30 are creating a significant barrier. I would therefore describe the market as bullish while it remains structurally supported, but I would become more cautious because price is already extended near resistance. The FVG zones below provide potential retracement areas, while the Bullish Order Block remains the deeper demand reference. My preferred approach would be to wait for confirmation: either a clean bullish BOS above resistance followed by acceptance, or a confirmed bearish rejection with structural weakness. I would avoid treating the chart as a guaranteed buy or sell signal because M15 price action can change quickly. In my view, 78.30 is the key breakout decision level, while the lower FVG and Bullish Order Block are the major downside reference zones. The strongest setup would come from a clear reaction at these marked Smart Money areas combined with confirmation from market structure.