FX.co ★ FX-Perfact | EUR/USD

EUR/USD Timeframe H4: Based on the EUR/USD chart on the H4 timeframe, the current technical conditions indicate a fairly strong shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. The latest price is around 1.1552, after previously experiencing a significant increase from the 1.1375 area to approach the 1.1580 resistance level. This movement indicates that buyers have taken control after EUR/USD went through a fairly long consolidation phase. However, the current price position is close to important resistance, so the possibility of a short-term correction still needs to be monitored. The price structure, the positions of the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs), and several horizontal levels on the chart suggest that the current primary bias remains bullish, but further confirmation is needed. Looking at the movement since mid-June, EUR/USD has previously experienced very dominant selling pressure. The price, which initially hovered around 1.1600–1.1620, then experienced a sharp decline to reach the 1.1320–1.1340 area by the end of June. The decline revealed a clear bearish structure, with the price moving below the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs). After reaching this low, selling pressure began to ease, and the price entered a prolonged consolidation phase, primarily between 1.1375 and 1.1434. This phase laid the groundwork for the price structure shift that became more apparent in late July. From the perspective of the 100-day moving average (MA), indicated by the blue line, the indicator is currently positioned around 1.1465–1.1470 and has begun to move up quite clearly. This change in the 100-day moving average (MA) is an important indication that medium-term momentum has improved. The price is now well above the 100-day moving average (MA), making this line potentially dynamic support if EUR/USD experiences a correction. As long as the price remains above the 100-day moving average (MA), the medium-term bullish structure can be maintained.

Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA), indicated by the red line, is slightly below the 100-day moving average (MA), around 1.1460–1.1465. Previously, the 200-day moving average (MA200) had been moving downward for quite some time due to bearish pressure since June. However, in the last few sessions, the line has begun to flatten and slowly show an upward trend. Most importantly, the price has successfully broken through and maintained above the 200-day MA. This indicates that the long-term trend, previously bearish, is entering a transition phase. The 100-day MA, which has begun to move above the 200-day MA, also further strengthens the indication of a shift in momentum to bullish. The structural change became even more apparent when EUR/USD successfully broke through the horizontal resistance level of 1.1434. This level had previously been a frequent price limit during the consolidation phase. After the breakout, the price managed to rise past the 1.1500 area and then reached 1.1550. Thus, 1.1500 now serves as important horizontal support. As long as the price remains above 1.1500, the previous breakout is still valid, and the opportunity for an uptrend to continue remains open. The nearest resistance level to watch is 1.1580. The chart shows that the price has reached this area and experienced a selling reaction. The 1.1580 level is crucial because it is above the current price and represents a barrier buyers must break to open up space to a higher area. If the H4 candlesticks can convincingly break through 1.1580 and then maintain the price above that level, the bullish momentum could potentially continue towards 1.1621, the next resistance level. The 1.1621 area is also crucial because it is close to the price peak at the beginning of the chart. Failure to break through 1.1580, on the other hand, could trigger a short-term correction. The first correction will likely test the 1.1500 area. This level is worth monitoring as it represents former resistance that has the potential to become support. If the price falls to 1.1500 but receives a bullish rejection, this could actually be an opportunity for buyers to push the price back towards 1.1580. However, if EUR/USD manages to break below 1.1500 with a strong H4 candle, the correction could potentially continue towards the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs). The 1.1434–1.1465 zone is a particularly attractive support area due to the confluence of the 1.1434 horizontal support level with the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs). Areas like this typically have stronger technical significance than a single level. If the price experiences a significant correction and enters this zone, buyer reaction will determine the next direction. As long as the price remains above this zone, the bullish trend remains well-founded. Conversely, a strong break below the 200-day moving average (MA) and support at 1.1434 would signal that the previous bullish breakout is losing momentum. The next support level is around 1.1375, a key level in the previous consolidation structure. This area served as a price rebound point several times before EUR/USD finally broke out upwards. If the price falls below 1.1375, the medium-term bullish structure will come under serious pressure. Below it lies support at 1.1324, a key base area for the previous decline. A fall back below 1.1375 could even turn the bullish structure into a sideways or bearish trend again. In terms of price action, the movement since late July has been quite interesting. EUR/USD experienced a strong surge from around 1.1375, surpassing 1.1434, and then moving towards 1.1500. After passing this level, the price formed a series of higher highs and higher lows until it reached the 1.1580 area. This is a basic characteristic of an uptrend. However, the latest candle indicates selling pressure after the price approached 1.1580. Therefore, the market is currently in a decisive phase. Buyers need a breakout above 1.1580 to maintain momentum, while sellers will attempt to exploit this resistance to push the price back towards the 1.1500 support level. Overall, the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) support the bullish scenario. The price is above both moving averages, the 100-day moving average (MA) is starting to rise, and the 200-day moving average (MA) is losing its bearish slope. This indicates that the selling pressure that dominated EUR/USD in the previous month has eased significantly. However, since the price has moved quite far from the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs), the risk of a retracement cannot be ignored. A correction towards support can actually be a normal part of an uptrend as long as the higher low structure remains intact.