FX.co ★ Deli | XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold Holds Above $4,300 as Weak U.S. Jobs Data Shifts Fed Expectations Safe-Haven Demand Meets a Softer U.S. Labor Market: At around $4,328, XAU/USD is entering the week with a constructive fundamental backdrop, although the market is now highly sensitive to U.S. inflation data. The major catalyst has been the unexpectedly weak July U.S. employment report. U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, versus expectations for an increase of roughly 80,000, while May and June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103,000. Although unemployment unexpectedly improved to 4.1%, the decline was partly explained by a sharp fall in labor-force participation to 61.4%. Wage growth also moderated to approximately 3.2% year-on-year. The report reduced expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike, with September hike odds falling from 57% to 44%, weakening the dollar and supporting non-yielding gold. However, the bullish gold narrative faces an important test on Wednesday, when the U.S. CPI report is due. ************'s calendar confirms headline and core CPI are among the week's key U.S. events, followed by PPI and jobless claims on Thursday. The policy outlook is complicated by still-elevated inflation and rising energy prices, with Reuters reporting that oil has climbed above $84 as negotiations surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain. Consequently, gold is benefiting from weaker employment and reduced tightening expectations, while geopolitical risk continues to provide a secondary safe-haven bid. Daily Chart Signals Point to a Bullish-but-Cautious Structure On the daily chart, the move above the $4,250–$4,300 region has improved the medium-term technical structure after gold's sharp recovery from earlier lows. FXStreet's latest analysis identifies renewed selling pressure around $4,300 but describes the broader setup as potentially offering a “buy-the-dip” opportunity ahead of U.S. inflation data. Recent price action also shows that $4,300 is becoming an important psychological pivot: holding above it keeps buyers in control, while a sustained daily close below it would increase the probability of a deeper correction. From a moving-average perspective, the recovery suggests improving short-term trend momentum, while daily Heiken Ashi candles remain useful for distinguishing continuation from a temporary pullback. The immediate resistance zone is around $4,350–$4,375, followed by the psychological $4,400 level. On the downside, $4,300 is the first important support, followed by $4,250 and approximately $4,200. The recent rally after the weak payroll report demonstrates that buyers remain willing to accumulate dips, but the market is likely to remain volatile until CPI establishes the next direction.

With XAU/USD at $4,328, the preferred short-term bias is bullish above $4,300, but traders should avoid chasing the market immediately before major U.S. inflation data. A reasonable short-term long setup would be an entry around $4,305–$4,325 following confirmation that $4,300 continues to hold, with an initial target around $4,375 and an extended target near $4,400; a protective stop can be placed around $4,265. Conversely, a decisive daily break below $4,300 would invalidate the bullish setup and favor a short position around $4,285–$4,300, targeting $4,250 initially and $4,200 thereafter, with a stop around $4,340. For a longer-term plan, the preferred strategy is to buy substantial pullbacks while price remains above $4,200, with an accumulation zone around $4,200–$4,250, a stop below $4,120, and upside targets at $4,450 and $4,550. The alternative long-term bearish scenario would require a sustained break below $4,200, opening the door toward $4,100–$4,050.