FX.co ★ Deli | XAG/USD, SILVER

Silver Finds Support as Softer U.S. Jobs Data Weighs on the Dollar The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, while previous payroll figures were revised substantially lower, increasing doubts about whether the Fed will maintain a restrictive stance. Reuters reports that market pricing for a September Fed rate hike dropped sharply after the report, while Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar weakened. This is important for silver because the metal pays no interest and generally benefits when real yields and the dollar decline. At the same time, inflation remains the critical counterweight. Markets are awaiting Wednesday’s U.S. CPI release, with economists expecting headline inflation around 3.4% year-on-year and core inflation near 2.5%. A hotter-than-expected CPI reading could revive expectations for tighter Fed policy and strengthen the dollar, potentially limiting silver’s upside. Conversely, softer inflation would reinforce expectations for a less restrictive policy path and could provide another catalyst for XAG/USD. Geopolitical risk is also keeping precious metals supported. Uncertainty surrounding Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices continues to influence global inflation expectations; Reuters reports Brent crude remains above $83 while negotiations concerning shipping through the strategic waterway continue. Beyond investment demand, silver retains structural support from industrial applications, particularly electronics and solar-related manufacturing, making its outlook more sensitive to global growth expectations than gold. Daily Structure Signals a Recovery Above $60 The daily chart shows a significant recovery from the roughly $55–$60 region seen during the previous selloff, with price now holding above the psychologically important $60 threshold. FXStreet previously identified $60 as an important technical floor after XAG/USD's sharp decline, while subsequent price action has demonstrated that buyers have regained control of the immediate structure. At $63.90, silver is testing an important resistance band around $64.00–$65.00, where previous selling pressure can re-emerge. A sustained daily close above $65 would strengthen the bullish case and expose $66.50–$68.00 next. On the downside, $62.00 is the first meaningful support, followed by $60.00 and then approximately $58.00. The daily moving-average structure is improving as price recovers from deeply depressed levels, while Heiken Ashi candles would remain constructive as long as successive daily candles continue producing higher highs and higher lows. CCI momentum should also be monitored closely: a sustained move above the zero line would support bullish continuation, while a sharp reversal from elevated territory could warn of short-term exhaustion. For traders, the key technical question is whether buyers can convert the $63–$64 area into a launchpad rather than allowing another rejection from resistance.

With silver at $63.90, the preferred short-term strategy is to favor buying controlled pullbacks rather than chasing an extended move. A reasonable long entry is $62.80–$63.40 after bullish price confirmation, with an exit/TP zone at $65.00–$66.00 and a protective SL around $61.80. A decisive daily close above $65 could justify holding part of the position toward $67.50–$68.00. Conversely, if silver repeatedly fails near $64.50–$65.00 and breaks below $62, the bullish setup would weaken considerably. In that scenario, a short entry around $61.80–$62.20 could target $60.00, with a stop around $63.80. The immediate directional bias therefore remains bullish while $62 holds, but Wednesday’s U.S. CPI represents a major volatility event that could invalidate technical levels quickly. Trading Recommendations: For market participants aiming to capitalize on silver's ongoing price dynamics, structured positioning across distinct time horizons helps mitigate risk while optimizing potential reward. Below are the specific execution parameters for both short-term intraday execution and medium-term swing strategies. Short-Term Trading Plan (Intraday / Swing) Directional Bias: Long Entry Zone: $63.30 – $63.60 Take Profit (TP): $65.40 Stop Loss (SL): $61.40 Long-Term Trading Plan (Positional) Directional Bias: Long Entry Zone: $61.50 – $62.50 Take Profit (TP): $71.00 Stop Loss (SL): $58.90