FX.co ★ Deli | #Bitcoin chart analysis

Macro Crosscurrents Keep Bitcoin Trapped Between Risk Appetite and Fed Uncertainty Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading around $64,908, with the cryptocurrency attempting to stabilize after a prolonged correction from its 2026 peak. The latest macro backdrop has become somewhat more supportive for risk assets after the U.S. July employment report showed an unexpected 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls, compared with expectations for an 80,000 increase. Reuters reported that the weak labor-market reading reduced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike, while Treasury yields declined and the U.S. dollar weakened. That combination is potentially constructive for Bitcoin because lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and a softer dollar can improve liquidity conditions for globally traded cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, the Fed's policy outlook remains uncertain. Reuters notes that markets are still roughly divided over the possibility of a September rate hike, while attention has shifted toward the upcoming U.S. inflation report. Higher-than-expected CPI would complicate the dovish interpretation of the jobs data and could pressure Bitcoin through renewed dollar and yield strength. Geopolitical developments are another source of volatility. Continuing tensions involving Iran and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices higher at times, creating renewed inflation concerns. At the same time, Bitcoin remains highly correlated with broader technology and risk sentiment. Investing.com previously reported that Bitcoin's recovery toward $65,000 was supported by improving risk appetite, while earlier weakness was associated with technology-sector selling and uncertainty over monetary policy. Daily Structure Shows Recovery, but $65,500 Remains the Key Barrier On the daily chart, Bitcoin's structure is best described as neutral-to-bullish in the short term but still corrective on the broader trend. The rebound from the sub-$58,000 area has restored buying interest, but BTC has struggled to establish a decisive breakout above the mid-$60,000 region. With the current price at $64,908, the market is therefore approaching an important resistance cluster around $65,500–$66,000. A daily close above that zone would strengthen the recovery structure and expose $67,500, followed by $70,000. On the downside, $63,500 is the first important support, followed by $62,000 and the psychologically significant $60,000 area. From a momentum perspective, the daily CCI should be watched around its zero line: a sustained move above zero would confirm improving upside momentum, whereas a rejection from positive territory would suggest that sellers remain active. Daily Heiken Ashi candles are also important because consecutive bullish candles with limited lower shadows would support continuation, while a reversal candle near $65,500 could signal exhaustion.

At $64,908, the preferred short-term directional bias is moderately bullish while Bitcoin holds above $63,500. Rather than chasing price directly into resistance, traders could consider a long entry around $64,000–$64,500 following evidence of support, with an initial exit/TP near $65,500 and a secondary target around $67,000. A protective SL around $62,900 would place risk beneath the immediate support structure. The bullish setup would become considerably stronger after a confirmed daily close above $66,000, potentially opening the way toward $68,000–$70,000. Conversely, if BTC fails repeatedly at $65,500–$66,000 and breaks below $63,500, the short-term structure would turn bearish. In that scenario, a short entry around $63,300–$63,700 could target $61,500 initially and $60,000 next, with an SL around $65,200. Because Bitcoin trades continuously and reacts quickly to macroeconomic headlines, these levels should be treated as conditional technical scenarios rather than fixed predictions. Longer-Term Outlook: Recovery Potential Depends on $60,000 Holding Bitcoin remains attractive from a risk-reward perspective only if the broader $60,000–$62,000 support zone remains intact. A preferred strategic long entry would be around $61,500–$63,000 after a confirmed bullish reversal, with an initial TP/exit near $70,000 and a secondary objective around $75,000; a SL below $58,500 would protect against a renewed breakdown toward the year's lows. The alternative long-term bearish scenario would be activated by a sustained daily close below $60,000. Traders could then consider a short entry around $59,500–$60,000, targeting $56,500 and potentially $54,000, with an SL near $62,000. Overall, Bitcoin's immediate outlook has improved following the weak U.S. employment report and softer dollar, but the upcoming inflation data remains the major catalyst. A dovish inflation surprise could help BTC clear $66,000, while hotter inflation could strengthen the dollar, revive rate-hike expectations, and push Bitcoin back toward $62,000–$60,000.