FX.co ★ PipsHunter99 | XAU/USD, GOLD

Technical and Fundamental Analysis of the Gold (XAU/USD) Gold (XAU/USD) recovered from its weekly low during Wednesday’s Asian session and climbed back above $4,350. The rebound came as the U.S. dollar (USD) lost some momentum after its recent recovery from a two-month low, allowing gold to recover part of Tuesday’s sharp decline. Despite the bounce, traders may remain cautious before taking fresh positions, as the next major catalyst is the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. Investors are looking for further clues about the Federal Reserve’s future interest-rate path, particularly as rising energy prices are creating renewed inflation concerns. Crude oil prices have climbed to nearly three-week highs as tensions between the United States and Iran continue over the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has maintained that Washington is not negotiating with Tehran and that the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place. He also shared a map on Truth Social showing the strategic Strait of Hormuz as a new U.S. territory. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, meanwhile, said the important waterway would remain closed until the United States meets the conditions outlined in the June memorandum of understanding. The continued uncertainty is keeping a geopolitical risk premium in oil markets, while higher energy prices are adding to concerns about a renewed inflationary impulse. Higher inflation risks have also pushed longer-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, with the 30-year yield reaching its highest level since June 2007. At the same time, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows markets are still pricing roughly a 68% probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year. This backdrop could limit gold’s upside because higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. ING analysts noted that the Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered from around 99.40 and argued that the greenback is not yet ready for another major breakdown. They highlighted rising energy prices and elevated 30-year Treasury yields as important short-term sources of dollar support. If those factors persist, expectations for a September Fed rate hike could return to the market. The energy outlook remains particularly important. Washington appears reluctant to extend the current ceasefire arrangement with Iran, which has contributed to renewed strength in oil and gas prices. Higher energy costs could support the dollar through both the U.S. energy position and the Federal Reserve’s response to inflation. Continued geopolitical uncertainty may also keep demand for the safe-haven dollar elevated, meaning gold buyers could remain selective despite the metal’s broader bullish structure. Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading near 4,355, showing a short-term recovery within a broader constructive H4 structure, while the H1 timeframe continues to display mixed momentum around its key moving averages. On the H4 chart, the broader bias remains bullish as gold continues to trade within an ascending channel. The recent rejection from the 4,430–4,450 supply zone triggered a corrective move, with sellers gaining control after a shooting-star-type formation appeared near the upper Bollinger Band. Immediate demand is developing around 4,345–4,365, where recent swing lows and previous buying reactions provide a potential base for another recovery. The H4 20 SMA is positioned close to the current price and is acting as dynamic support, while the 50 SMA remains lower and continues to reinforce the medium-term bullish structure. As long as gold holds above the 20 SMA and maintains the current demand zone, buyers could attempt another move toward 4,430–4,450. A sustained breakout above this resistance would expose the next supply area around 4,480–4,500, while a deeper extension could bring the psychological 4,500 level into focus. On the downside, a decisive H4 break below 4,345 could send price toward the next demand region around 4,270–4,320. On the H1 chart, short-term selling pressure remains more visible. Recent attempts to recover have struggled around the 20 SMA, which is currently acting as dynamic resistance near 4,360–4,370. The 50 SMA sits slightly higher and adds another layer of resistance, keeping near-term momentum somewhat restrained. H1 demand is concentrated around 4,325–4,340, where buyers previously defended the market and where additional support could develop if the current correction extends. A deeper demand pocket can also be monitored around 4,270–4,300, particularly if bearish momentum pushes price below the current H4 support structure. For now, primary support is centered on the 4,345–4,365 confluence zone, while secondary support sits around 4,325–4,340. Resistance remains concentrated at 4,430–4,450, followed by the 4,480–4,500 region.