FX.co ★ Helsinki | XAG/USD, SILVER

Silver extended its decline for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, testing levels below $63.00 at the time of writing after tumbling from the $66.50 area on Tuesday. The precious metal came under pressure as markets turned cautious amid a worsening Middle East crisis, with oil prices consolidating at elevated levels and inflation concerns resurfacing. The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran expired on Monday, and President Trump confirmed on Tuesday that there are currently no negotiations with Tehran. Meanwhile, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited to sporadic movements, a development that continues to support rising oil prices. Brent crude climbed to $90 after rising roughly 6% over the past three days, adding to inflationary pressures and weighing on non-yielding assets like silver. The market's attention is now firmly fixed on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, as rising energy costs triggered by the Middle East crisis have reignited inflation concerns. Crude oil prices have climbed to near three-week highs amid the ongoing standoff between Washington and Tehran over the strategic waterway. Trump has insisted that the US is not negotiating with Iran and that the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in full effect, while also posting a map on Truth Social depicting the Strait of Hormuz as new US territory. On the other side, Iran's parliament speaker stated that the key waterway would remain closed until the US fulfills the conditions agreed to in the June memorandum. That standoff perpetuates geopolitical risk premiums, underpinning crude prices and fueling inflation concerns while pushing long-term 30-year US Treasury yields to their highest levels since June 2007.

Silver is currently trading at $63.00, hovering below all key moving averages on the hourly chart but still above the 200-period SMA on the four-hour timeframe, a mixed technical picture that reflects the pair's recent downward drift. On the hourly chart, the 50-period SMA sits at $64.65 while the 200-period SMA is positioned lower at $64.40, meaning price is trading roughly $1.65 below the 50 SMA and about $1.40 below the 200 SMA. That's a bearish setup on the short-term horizon, with the 50 SMA above the 200 SMA forming a golden cross that signals upward momentum had been building, but the price trading below both averages suggests that recent selling pressure has pushed the pair into a corrective phase. Both averages are sloping downward, reinforcing the negative short-term picture. Stepping back to the four-hour chart, the outlook is slightly more constructive. The 50 SMA sits at $64.55 while the 200 SMA is positioned lower at $60.20, meaning price is trading roughly $1.55 below the 50 SMA but about $2.80 above the 200 SMA. That's a mixed signal; the price below the 50 SMA suggests some near-term weakness, but holding above the 200 SMA indicates that the broader trend remains somewhat supportive. The gap between the two H4 averages is about $4.35, with the 50 SMA above the 200 SMA confirming a bullish crossover on the intermediate timeframe. This cross-timeframe picture, with price below all key SMAs on the hourly chart but holding above the 200 SMA on the H4, points to a market that is in a short-term pullback within a broader bullish structure. Now let's look at the horizontal levels that exist independently of the moving averages. On the resistance side, the first hurdle is $63.50, Wednesday's high, which has proven to be a sticking point. Above that, the next supply zone runs from $64.00 to $64.20, followed by a heavier barrier at $64.65. If buyers manage to clear all of that, the next targets are $65.20 and then $65.80. On the support side, the first floor is at $62.50, which aligns with the recent swing low and represents a key level. A break below that opens the door to $62.00, then $61.50, which aligns with the recent swing low and represents a key support from earlier in July. Further down, the next cushions are at $61.00 and then $60.50, which marks the H4 200 SMA and represents a deeper demand zone.