FX.co ★ glow_with_mouchi | USD/JPY

USD/JPY is currently going through an important corrective phase after the strong bullish trend that dominated the pair from April through late July. Looking at the daily chart, I can see that the pair climbed steadily from the 156–158 region toward a major peak around 164.00 before experiencing a very sharp reversal. That sell-off completely changed the short-term structure, and for me, the current price action around 158.45 is a critical area for determining whether the pair is preparing for another recovery or beginning a deeper bearish correction The first thing I notice is the dramatic rejection from the 163.80–164.00 region. The move lower was aggressive and pushed USD/JPY toward the 155.00 area within a relatively short period. Since then, buyers have managed to recover part of those losses, but the rebound has struggled to regain the 159.40–159.50 resistance zone. This tells me that although buyers are still active, they have not yet regained enough momentum to restore the previous bullish trend On the upside, I consider 159.40–159.50 the first important resistance area. A convincing daily close above this zone would improve the technical picture and could open the way toward 160.95, followed by 162.45. If momentum becomes strong enough to break above 162.45, I would then start watching the previous high around 163.80–164.00 again. However, I would not consider the broader bullish structure fully restored until price proves that it can sustain trading above 160.00. On the downside, 157.95 is the first support level I am watching closely. A daily close below this area would, in my opinion, increase the probability of another move toward 156.40. Below that, the 154.90–155.00 region becomes extremely important because it represents the area where the previous aggressive sell-off found strong buying interest. A break below 155.00 would significantly weaken the medium-term outlook and could signal that sellers are taking control again. The RSI also supports my cautious view. On the chart, RSI(14) is around 38.8, which is below the neutral 50 level but still above oversold territory. I interpret this as bearish momentum without an extreme oversold condition. Therefore, I would not automatically expect a strong rebound simply because the pair has already fallen significantly The MACD is even more interesting. It remains below the zero line, confirming that the broader momentum is still bearish, but the histogram appears to be losing some of its negative intensity and the MACD line is starting to turn higher. For me, this suggests that selling pressure may be weakening rather than completely disappearing. Current technical readings also continue to show bearish pressure in RSI and MACD, which broadly agrees with what I see on the chart.