FX.co ★ Aimee | USD/JPY

Technical analysis 21 Agust 2026 USD/JPY H-1

The USD/JPY 1-hour chart shows a strong V-shaped recovery after the recent dip at 158.105. Price action has steadily climbed towards the 159.158 key horizontal level, which previously served as structural support and is now being tested as overhead resistance. Key technical insights Price Action and Recovery: After touching the low of 158.105, buyers stepped in aggressively, forming consecutive bullish candles. The price is now pressing against the previous breakdown zone around 159.158-159.200. Moving Average Dynamic: The red moving average line has turned upward, now below the current price action around 158.835, acting as immediate dynamic support on minor pullbacks. Oscillators and Indicators: RSI (14): Currently at 65.22, showing strong bullish momentum without entering overbought territory (>70). MACD (12,26,9): The histogram is printing positive purple bars, and the main line (0.0811) is sitting above the signal line (-0.0262), confirming a short-term bullish momentum reversal. Point-to-point implementation strategy Depending on how the price reacts to the current 159.158 resistance zone, there are two execution plans: Scenario A: Bullish breakout continuation Entry Zone: Buy a stop or limit order above 159.200 after the H1 candle closes clearly above the current horizontal line. Stop Loss (SL): 158.800 (below recent pullback structure and dynamic moving average). Take Profit (TP1): 159.565 (major swing high). Take Profit (TP2): 159.930 (Upper Psychological Target). Scenario B: Bearish Rejection (Feed the Rally) Entry Zone: Sell a limit order near 159.158 - 159.300 if a bearish reversal pattern (eg shooting star or engulfing candle) appears on the lower time frame (M15/M30). Stop Loss (SL): 159.500 (just below previous high). Take Profit (TP1): 158.835 (retest of moving average support). Take Profit (TP2): 158.470 (middle level support zone). Risk and Implementation Strategy Since price is testing a major structural level after an upward move, blindly entering the market price has an unfavorable risk-to-reward ratio. It is recommended to wait for the near H1 candle to confirm a breakout or rejection. What is your preferred risk tolerance per trade (for example, 1% or fixed pips), or would you like it adapted to a specific lot size?This consideration will help in determining the appropriate position size and ensuring that your overall trading strategy aligns with your financial goals. Additionally, monitoring market conditions closely can provide further insights for adjusting your risk management approach effectively.