FX.co ★ Helsinki | CL/Crude Oil

Crude oil prices pulled back on Monday, giving up some of the strong gains from last week as traders waited for more details on the new U.S. sanctions package against Iran. CL was trading near $85.35, with investors on edge over how far Washington's next move will go and whether it could drag in Russia or China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent set the tone in a Financial Times column over the weekend, calling the coming measures the single largest offensive ever mobilized against an adversary. He is expected to hold a press conference later Monday to spell out what the administration is calling an economic D-Day aimed at isolating Iran. Tehran has already fired back, saying China, Turkey, and other nations will not cut ties with Iran, and warning that it could halt all oil exports from the Gulf. Iranian officials also said any cooperation with the United States would be treated as an act of war, raising the stakes for U.S. allies in the Gulf and even Europe. Commerzbank analysts expect traders to stay cautious, with limited room for a downward correction in oil prices given the geopolitical backdrop and falling crude inventories. They highlighted that diesel stocks are especially tight, and warned that further inventory declines could push refined product prices higher. In the European gas market, prices are likely to keep climbing even as storage levels build at a slower pace. The broader concern is that if stockpiles keep shrinking before heating season arrives, the prolonged absence of Middle Eastern supply and the lack of higher processing rates at Russian refineries could send refined fuel prices soaring.

Crude oil is currently trading around the $85.45 area, with the moving average setup across multiple timeframes showing a market that is still in a bullish uptrend but facing some short-term consolidation after the recent push higher. On the hourly chart, the 50-period Simple Moving Average sits at $86.55, resting above the current price and acting as the nearest dynamic resistance barrier, while the 200-period Simple Moving Average is positioned at $84.40, providing a key support floor that has held during today's pullback. The 50 SMA holding above the 200 SMA keeps a golden cross intact on the hourly timeframe, though the gap between the two averages is narrowing, suggesting the short-term momentum is cooling off. On the four-hour chart, the 50-period Simple Moving Average rests at $84.50, while the 200-period Simple Moving Average sits at $81.50, both positioned below the current price and climbing in the same direction, reinforcing the bullish medium-term structure. The overlap of the four-hour 50 SMA with the hourly 200 SMA near the $84.40 to $84.50 zone creates a reinforced support area that should attract buyers on any dip. Looking at the horizontal levels that exist separately from the moving averages, the first resistance barrier sits at $86.55, matching the hourly 50 SMA, followed by the $87.00 level and the $88.00 round-figure mark. Above that, the next targets are $89.00 and $90.00, with the $92.00 area acting as the ultimate near-term objective. On the support side, the first floor is at $85.00, followed by the $84.50 to $84.40 convergence zone where the four-hour 50 SMA and hourly 200 SMA meet. Below that, the next cushions are at $83.00 and $82.00, with the $81.50 four-hour 200 SMA acting as the ultimate structural floor. For now, the bulls are still in control, but the pullback suggests some short-term profit-taking is underway. A daily close above $86.55 would likely reignite the rally toward $88.00 and beyond, while a break below $84.40 would signal a deeper correction toward the lower supports. The upcoming details on the U.S. sanctions package and any response from Iran will be the key drivers to watch, as any escalation could send prices sharply higher, while signs of de-escalation would likely trigger a more significant pullback.