FX.co ★ Leiderssj | CL/Crude Oil

I'm going to primarily use WTI as a reference point, which is the crude oil that usually appears as USOIL on many platforms. Today, WTI closed around $85.01, down approximately 2.4%. Brent finished near $92.17, also down approximately 2.4%. Here's my take on oil today. In my opinion, the market still has a long-term bullish structure, but in the short term, it's entering a correction phase after several consecutive sessions of gains. Over the last six sessions, oil had been accumulating a significant increase. Today, profit-taking appeared, and the price retreated after the United States announced new sanctions related to Iran. The market initially interpreted this as meaning that these measures might not immediately reduce Iranian exports as much as expected. Technical situation of WTI The $85 level is quite important at the moment. The price managed to break through that area last week, but today it fell back towards it. Furthermore, recent technical analysis indicates that around $85 is a significant resistance level related to the 100-day moving average. Therefore, in my opinion, we now need to see if $85 acts as support. My main levels would be: 87.00–88.00: first resistance. 89.50–90.00: strong resistance. 85.00: decision level. 83.50–84.00: first support. 81.50–82.00: important support. 80.00: psychological and structural support. Bullish scenario If WTI manages to recover to $86–87 and subsequently breaks above $88, I believe we could retest the $89–90 zone. A clear break above $90 would again shift the outlook in favor of buyers and could pave the way for $92–$95. In this scenario, what I want to see is the price stop making lower lows on shorter timeframes and strongly reclaim $86–$87. Bearish Scenario If the price continues below $85 and breaks below $83.50–$84.00, I would expect a correction toward $82. If it also breaks below $82, the next area I would be watching is $80. In that case, the drop would be more significant because it would mean that the upward momentum of the last few weeks is losing steam. What's fundamentally happening Here's the most important part of the analysis. Oil continues to have a strong geopolitical component due to the situation between the United States and Iran and the difficulties related to the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that observed global oil inventories fell by approximately 69 million barrels during July and that Brent and WTI futures returned to a backwardation pattern. The EIA also estimates that disruptions related to the Strait of Hormuz have led to sharp reductions in global inventories and that prices may remain elevated until oil flows return to normal. Therefore, even though we are seeing a drop today, I don't believe that oil has automatically entered a bearish trend. The market continues to face significant supply risk. But there is also a bearish factor: US inventories are rising. The latest available data shows that US crude oil stockpiles increased by 4.405 million barrels, reaching approximately 428.8 million barrels. This marked the third consecutive week of increases. This limits the upside potential for oil because it indicates that, at least in the United States, available supply is increasing. So we have two opposing forces: Geopolitics and supply issues: favor oil. Increased inventories and uncertainty about demand: put pressure on oil. That's why I expect considerable volatility. My main scenario Personally, I wouldn't pursue a sell right now just because it fell today. Oil has been on a fairly strong upward trend, and today's drop could simply be a correction. My key area would be $84–$85. If that area holds and the price recovers to $86–$87, I would be more interested in looking for buy opportunities towards: $88 → $90 → $92 But if it clearly falls below $83.50–$84, I would change my short-term outlook and look for a correction towards: $82 → $80 In short, for me, oil is at a turning point. As long as WTI holds around 83.50–85, I believe there is still a possibility of further upward movement. Above 87–88, buyers would regain strength. Below 83.50, the probability of a correction toward 82 and subsequently 80 would increase considerably. And something I consider very important for today and the coming days is not to rely solely on technical analysis. Any news related to Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, US sanctions, or potential negotiations could trigger price movements.