FX.co ★ Der | XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold prices retaining much of the previous day's gains, as market participants awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for August, due at 12:30 GMT. This key employment data comes after weak figures from the private sector. Wednesday's ADP employment report showed only 38,000 new private-sector jobs added, well below market expectations of 46,000, marking the slowest growth since February. This weak indicator has led to caution in financial markets in general, with the focus on whether the official data will confirm a slowdown in the labor market or show an unexpected rebound. Analysts at TD Securities, who analyze the upcoming data, forecast a rebound to 95,000 non-farm payrolls in August, following a decline of 23,000 jobs in July. However, the analysts also cautioned that their forecast carries risks, as it leans toward a hawkish scenario, meaning the results could be much stronger than anticipated. Regarding the overall unemployment rate, the firm expects it to remain stable at 4.1%, with balanced directional risks. TD Securities also noted that a moderately hawkish employment report would confirm the Fed's focus on ongoing inflation dynamics, but this alone would not be enough to prompt the Fed to take aggressive tightening measures or raise interest rates. Meanwhile, shifts in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy continue to significantly impact precious metals valuations. Following Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller's dovish remarks at the Reuters NEXT Newsmaker event, market participants noticeably reduced their hawkish bets. Waller stated at the event that he was more confident in the recent deflationary trend. Data from the CME FedWatch tool showed that the market's implied probability of an interest rate hike at the upcoming September policy meeting had fallen sharply to 50%, down from 63.2% earlier in the week. Chairman Waller explicitly stated that he had finally seen clear signs of easing price pressures in recent data. He added that if the August Consumer Price Index report confirms continued price declines, he would favor keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged. However, policymakers still have several options, and Waller did not rule out adjusting monetary policy should inflation reverse. In addition to domestic macroeconomic factors, external geopolitical pressures continue to influence the overall precious metals trading environment. Global crude oil prices remain elevated due to renewed disruptions in energy supply chains resulting from escalating tensions in the Middle East, which naturally limits the potential for gold price gains. The recent military confrontation between the United States and Iran ended weeks of relative calm. Earlier, US Central Command forces attacked Iranian missile launch sites that were preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's energy traffic passes. Technically, spot gold (XAU/USD) is holding steady at $4469.86 on the daily chart, maintaining its recent upward trend and firmly above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) (around $4354.56). The current market structure strongly suggests dominance of institutional and retail buyers, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding steady at 55, indicating moderate bullish momentum and the market not yet entering a dangerous overbought zone. On the downside, the 100-day SMA provides immediate technical support. A break below this key level could trigger further selling pressure, targeting the psychological level around $4300. On the other hand, bulls need to break above gold's August high (around $4697) to unlock further upside potential in the precious metal.