FX.co ★ Crude | XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold prices fell for the second consecutive day on Monday, dropping below the psychological $4,400 level during Asian trading hours. The market is still digesting the impact of a surprisingly strong US jobs report. Official non-farm payrolls data showed the US added 162,000 jobs in August, exceeding market expectations of 56,000 and reaffirming the resilience of the US labor market. This data continued to weigh on gold prices. While the national unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% and the annual wage inflation rate slowed slightly to 3.1%, the strong jobs data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve might shift to a more hawkish monetary policy and raise interest rates at its next meeting. This shift toward a more hawkish stance injected fresh momentum into the dollar, further pressuring non-yielding precious metals. Adding to the macroeconomic pressure on gold is the volatile and rapidly deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The escalating military confrontation between the US and Iran has significantly heightened concerns about global energy supplies. Recent naval clashes in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz—particularly the reported armed confrontations between commercial tankers and warships—have boosted crude oil prices in energy markets, exacerbating inflation concerns. While such geopolitical turmoil has historically enhanced gold's appeal as a primary safe haven, the initial market reaction has favored the US dollar, given its ability to directly benefit from safe-haven liquidity during periods of heightened military conflict. Consequently, rising US Treasury yields, strong employment data, and continued demand for the dollar as a safe haven have temporarily curbed the upward momentum in gold prices, prompting market participants to exercise greater caution before establishing new long positions. However, the structural downside risks facing precious metals remain somewhat contained by mixed signals from central bank officials and the cautious stance of foreign exchange traders ahead of key domestic inflation data releases. Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller recently stated that he would support maintaining the current interest rate if upcoming data confirms a downward trend in consumer prices, thus paving the way for a more accommodative monetary policy. Therefore, market participants are closely watching the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), with widespread expectations that these figures will determine the Fed's next move and influence the near-term direction of the US dollar. Technically, despite some short-term declines, the overall multi-month bullish structure of the gold/US dollar pair (XAU/USD) remains intact. The spot price continues to hold above key technical support levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average and the significant 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous summer rally. Although momentum indicators, such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), are hovering in negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding steady near the neutral level of 51, the technical picture suggests that the market is undergoing an orderly consolidation phase rather than a full-blown structural breakdown. Immediate resistance lies near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, while support is near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-day moving average. Any further pullback is expected to attract strong buying interest.