FX.co ★ Sud | GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair fluctuated within its usual range below 1.3500, attempting to consolidate the modest gains made the previous day. While continued pressure on the US dollar (primarily due to the strength of the yen) limited the overall decline in the GBP/USD pair, several positive fundamental factors also curbed its upward momentum. Growing market expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty stemming from escalating tensions between the US and Iran, contributed to continued safe-haven flows into the dollar. Furthermore, market participants remained cautious regarding key macroeconomic data releases later this week (particularly the crucial monthly UK GDP report and the latest US inflation figures), refraining from making bold, one-sided bets. Technically, the overall structural trend for the GBP/USD pair remains slightly bullish, supported by its stability above the 200-period simple moving average on the four-hour chart. Spot prices continue to trade firmly above a strong and reliable Fibonacci support level, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, centered around 1.3471, particularly significant given the market rally during June-August. Momentum indicators confirm this trend, with the MACD showing a slightly positive value and the RSI hovering around 54, suggesting that while buying pressure is positive and healthy, a sharp breakout is not yet imminent. Looking ahead, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3549 represents immediate technical resistance. A strong and sustained break above this resistance would pave the way for further gains within a wider trading range. Conversely, the 200-period simple moving average (around 1.3498) provides immediate downside protection, followed by the previously mentioned 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (at 1.3471). Should these key support levels fail under further selling pressure, the downside is expected to extend to the 50.0% retracement level (around 1.3408) and could potentially test the 61.8% retracement level (around 1.3344).