FX.co ★ Jackroay | AUD/USD

AUDUSDm M30 — Complete SMC Analysis Based Strictly on Your Chart 1. FVG + Order Block Relationship The provided AUDUSDm, M30 chart shows a complete transition from a bullish market structure into a strong bearish reversal, followed by consolidation and a possible attempt to rebuild bullish structure. The most important relationship visible on the chart is between the FVG — Fair Value Gap Zones and the ORDER BLOCK (DEMAND) areas. On the left side, price develops a sequence of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL), showing that buyers are controlling the market. Price eventually reaches the upper ORDER BLOCK (SUPPLY) near the 0.7240–0.7245 region and begins rejecting it. From there, a strong bearish displacement develops, creating bearish imbalance/FVG areas and eventually breaking the previous bullish structure. Price then falls aggressively toward the lower ORDER BLOCK (DEMAND) around the 0.7150–0.7160 region. After reacting from demand, the market enters a range/sideways structure and later produces a recovery toward the 0.7185–0.7195 area. The current price around 0.71706 is therefore sitting between the lower demand and the recent upper liquidity, making the relationship between FVG, Order Block and structure especially important. 2. Swing High The marked Swing High near the upper portion of the chart is the point where the preceding bullish structure reaches its extreme. Before this area, price had been steadily creating Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL). The upward sequence demonstrates that buyers were successfully pushing price into progressively higher territory. When price reaches the Swing High, however, the character of the market changes. The candles around the upper region show hesitation followed by a strong bearish reaction. This is important because the Swing High becomes both a historical liquidity reference and the starting point of the bearish reversal. Price subsequently moves away from this area with substantial bearish momentum. Therefore, the Swing High should be considered a major upper structural reference. If price were ever to return toward this region, the reaction would be important because the chart has already shown that sellers were able to respond strongly there. For the current setup, however, the market remains considerably below that Swing High. 3. Higher Highs (HH) / Higher Lows (HL) The left and middle-left portions of the chart clearly show a bullish sequence of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL). Price initially advances while repeatedly creating higher swing points, and pullbacks remain above previous important lows. This is the classic bullish structure visible directly on the chart. The marked Previous Structure also helps explain how the market progressed upward before reaching the Swing High. Each successful Higher Low provided a base from which buyers could continue their advance. However, this bullish sequence eventually becomes exhausted near the upper supply. The later bearish displacement breaks the previous bullish rhythm, meaning the earlier HH/HL sequence should now be regarded as historical structure rather than the current dominant structure. This distinction is important: the chart demonstrates that buyers previously had strong control, but the subsequent MSS proves that the market character changed. The current structure must therefore be judged from the more recent price action rather than assuming that the earlier bullish trend is still fully intact. 4. ORDER BLOCK (SUPPLY) The upper ORDER BLOCK (SUPPLY) is positioned around approximately 0.7237–0.7244, directly beneath and around the marked Swing High. This is one of the strongest areas on the chart because the largest bearish reaction begins after price interacts with this region. The market first approaches supply after establishing a series of bullish HHs and HLs. Instead of continuing upward, price begins showing rejection and then moves sharply downward. The importance of this Order Block is therefore confirmed by the subsequent displacement. The bearish reaction travels through several previous structural areas and eventually reaches the lower demand zone. If price returns to the supply area in the future, the chart would warrant close attention to whether sellers again defend the zone. A strong rejection could recreate the bearish scenario seen previously. Conversely, a decisive break and sustained acceptance above the supply would invalidate the immediate bearish interpretation and support the Bullish Continuation Scenario — BOS Above Supply. For now, the supply remains a major upper barrier. 5. Bearish FVG The marked Bearish FVG below the supply region represents an imbalance created during the bearish transition. After the market rejects the upper Order Block, price begins moving downward with stronger bearish candles. This rapid displacement leaves an inefficient area behind, which is represented by the Bearish FVG. The zone is important because it sits between the former bullish structure and the subsequent bearish movement. Price can potentially revisit such an area during a retracement before deciding whether to continue in the original direction or reverse. In this chart, the Bearish FVG is evidence that the bearish move was not merely a slow decline; there was a clear expansion of selling pressure. The existence of this imbalance also helps connect the upper supply to the later STRONG BEARISH MOVE. If price were to rally into this Bearish FVG and then reject, it could reinforce the bearish interpretation. If price instead moves decisively through it and continues higher, that would indicate that bearish pressure is weakening. 6. Bearish Rejection Scenario — Supply Reaction The Bearish Rejection Scenario — Supply Reaction is strongly supported by the historical price behavior shown on the chart. Price reached the upper supply region and failed to continue the previous bullish trend. Instead, sellers produced a sharp reaction that developed into a major bearish move. The important feature here is the transition from bullish structure to bearish displacement. A future return to the supply zone could therefore create another opportunity for sellers to demonstrate whether the same zone remains active. For the bearish scenario to become structurally convincing, price would ideally reject supply and then break nearby swing lows rather than simply producing a temporary pullback. The chart's previous reaction provides a useful structural example of what a successful supply rejection looks like: price reaches the upper zone, fails to hold higher levels, and then accelerates downward. At present, however, price is far below that supply, so the bearish rejection scenario is a conditional future scenario rather than something currently occurring at the supply itself.

7. STRONG BEARISH MOVE The STRONG BEARISH MOVE is arguably the most important displacement on the entire chart. After the market rejects the upper supply area, several bearish candles begin driving price downward. The move becomes particularly aggressive around the middle-right portion of the chart, where price falls rapidly from approximately the 0.7210–0.7200 region toward the lower 0.7160 area. This displacement is significant because it breaks the rhythm of the earlier bullish structure and demonstrates that sellers have taken control. The bearish movement also produces the FVG zones visible on the chart. Importantly, the market does not immediately recover after the initial decline. Instead, it reaches the lower demand area and begins consolidating. This suggests that the strong bearish move successfully transported price from the upper supply to the lower demand. The subsequent sideways action should therefore be interpreted in the context of this major bearish displacement rather than as an independent movement. 8. MSS The marked MSS represents the critical Market Structure Shift from the earlier bullish environment toward bearish control. Before the MSS, the chart contains clear HH and HL behavior. Once price breaks through the relevant bullish structure during the strong bearish displacement, the previous bullish sequence is no longer intact. This is the key reason the MSS is important. It tells us that the market's character has changed. After the MSS, price moves lower and reaches the demand area, where sellers temporarily lose their ability to continue pushing price downward at the same speed. The current chart therefore contains two distinct structural phases: the historical bullish phase before the MSS and the bearish-to-sideways phase after the MSS. The recent recovery does not automatically erase the MSS. To completely restore the bullish structure, price would need to reclaim important swing points and establish a new sequence of HH and HL. Until that occurs, the MSS remains a major structural reference. 9. ORDER BLOCK (DEMAND) The lower ORDER BLOCK (DEMAND) is located around approximately 0.7150–0.7160 and represents the major buying zone visible on the chart. Price arrives at this region after the strong bearish displacement from the upper supply. Instead of continuing sharply downward, price begins stabilizing around the demand zone. Several candles interact with this lower area, and eventually buyers generate a recovery. This makes the Order Block particularly important because it acts as the lower boundary of the current structure. The later bullish recovery toward the 0.7180–0.7190 region originates from this general demand area. If price continues to respect the demand zone, it can serve as a foundation for another bullish attempt. On the other hand, a decisive breakdown through the lower demand area would be a significant bearish development because it would indicate that buyers have lost the zone that previously stopped the strong bearish move. Therefore, the demand Order Block remains the most important lower-side reference on the current chart. 10. FVG — Fair Value Gap Zones The chart contains several FVG — Fair Value Gap Zones, including the bullish FVG around the lower-middle/right section and the bearish FVG higher up. These zones help identify where aggressive displacement occurred. The Bullish FVG was created during the recovery from the demand area, showing that buyers were able to accelerate upward after the market stabilized near the lows. The Bearish FVG, by contrast, was created during the earlier strong selling phase. This gives the chart a useful sequence: bearish displacement creates bearish imbalance, price reaches demand, bullish displacement creates bullish imbalance, and then the market enters a more balanced range. The current price around 0.71706 is positioned close to the upper side of the lower consolidation structure. If price falls back into the Bullish FVG and receives a strong bullish reaction, it could support another attempt higher. If the FVG is completely broken, the bullish recovery becomes weaker. Thus, the FVGs provide important intermediate references between the major Order Blocks. 11. Current Price Action — SELL SIDE LIQUIDITY (SSL) The chart specifically labels the current area as Current Price Action — SELL SIDE LIQUIDITY (SSL). Around the recent 0.7185–0.7195 area, price creates a cluster of short-term highs before pulling back toward the current 0.71706 level. This cluster is important because obvious highs can attract liquidity, while the recent lower consolidation also contains sell-side liquidity beneath the short-term lows. The chart shows price moving around these levels rather than developing a clean directional trend. This is why the additional label Current Structure: Range/Sideways is highly relevant. Price is currently trapped between the upper short-term liquidity region and the lower demand/FVG area. A sweep of nearby highs followed by bearish rejection would support a move back into the range. Conversely, a sweep of lower liquidity followed by strong bullish displacement could create the foundation for a continuation higher. The liquidity itself is therefore not a directional signal; the reaction after the liquidity event is what would provide the stronger confirmation. 12. Bullish Continuation Scenario The marked Bullish Continuation Scenario represents the possibility that buyers use the lower demand and FVG structure to continue the recovery. The recent chart shows that price already bounced from the lower region and travelled toward approximately 0.7190. This demonstrates that buyers are capable of producing upward movement from demand. However, the recovery has not yet returned price to the major supply region, and the chart is currently marked Range/Sideways. Therefore, bullish continuation requires additional confirmation. A stronger bullish sequence would involve price holding above the recent lower structure, breaking the nearby short-term highs, and forming new Higher Highs and Higher Lows. If that occurs, the recovery could potentially extend toward the upper bearish FVG and eventually the ORDER BLOCK (SUPPLY). The important condition is that buyers must gradually reclaim structure rather than simply produce isolated bullish candles. Until a new bullish structural sequence is established, this remains a continuation scenario rather than a confirmed trend reversal. 13. Bullish Continuation Scenario — BOS Above Supply The Bullish Continuation Scenario — BOS Above Supply is the strongest bullish confirmation displayed on the chart. Although the current price is far below the supply, the chart specifically identifies a possible future path in which buyers eventually regain control and break the upper ORDER BLOCK (SUPPLY). For that scenario to become valid, price would need to recover from the current range, overcome the intermediate bearish FVG and previous resistance structures, and ultimately break above the supply region around 0.7240. A mere wick above supply would not be sufficient to establish a strong structural breakout. A decisive candle close above the zone followed by sustained trading would provide much stronger evidence of BOS. If this occurred, the earlier bearish MSS would effectively be challenged by a new bullish structural sequence. Until such a breakout happens, the major supply remains a ceiling and the current chart should not be treated as already bullish at the higher timeframe structure. 14. Final Outlook — Bullish Structure at Major Supply / Current Structure: Range/Sideways The Final Outlook — Bullish Structure at Major Supply must be understood together with the chart's explicit Current Structure: Range/Sideways label. The historical structure was bullish, with clear HHs and HLs, but that bullish structure was broken by the MSS and followed by the STRONG BEARISH MOVE. Price then reached the lower ORDER BLOCK (DEMAND) and produced a recovery. At present, however, the market has not yet established a fresh sequence of confirmed Higher Highs and Higher Lows. Instead, the right side is characterized by consolidation between approximately the 0.7150–0.7160 demand region and the 0.7185–0.7195 short-term liquidity region, with current price around 0.71706. Therefore, the cleanest chart-based conclusion is that the market is currently range/sideways after a major bearish displacement, while buyers are attempting to rebuild structure from demand.The most important bullish path would be a successful defense of the demand/FVG area followed by a break of the recent short-term highs, continued bullish displacement, and eventually a BOS Above Supply around the 0.7240 region. The bearish path would involve rejection during a recovery, formation of lower highs, and a breakdown through the lower demand structure. The major supply remains the key higher-level decision zone, while the lower Order Block remains the key support/defense zone. In pure SMC terms, the chart currently shows a bearish structural history transitioning into a range, with potential bullish recovery developing from demand. The reaction around liquidity and the confirmation of MSS/BOS will determine which side gains the next meaningful structural advantage.