FX.co ★ Sud | #Ethereum chart analysis

Ethereum (ETH) dipped slightly by 0.7% on Friday, attempting to stabilize amid continued downward pressure following stronger-than-expected US inflation data. According to the US Labor Department, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.4% in August, in line with market expectations, after a revised 0.1% increase in July. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rate for the PPI jumped sharply to 5.4% from 4.8%. This upward momentum was primarily driven by higher energy costs, with rising oil prices pushing the energy sub-index up 4.2%. The core PPI also posted a similar monthly increase of 0.4%, further fueling market concerns ahead of the release of the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI). These consistently strong inflation figures have significantly increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy at its upcoming meeting scheduled for September 15-16. Derivatives markets and forecasting platforms like PolyMarkets indicate a 62% probability of an immediate interest rate hike next week, while the probability of an October rate hike has risen to 71%. Furthermore, market participants increasingly expect the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, to send positive signals in his first decisions, signaling a significant shift in the central bank's management. Rising borrowing costs have long threatened risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies, and profit-taking by retail investors following Ethereum's late-August rally undoubtedly weighed on the currency. Despite these negative macroeconomic factors, inflows from institutional investors into the Ethereum US Spot ETF have provided some stability. On Wednesday, the fund saw net inflows of $34.75 million, successfully offsetting outflows from the previous trading day. Despite institutional inflows declining this week to $218.4 million, compared to the previous week's yearly high of $824 million, strong spot demand continues to support Ethereum, preventing further heavy selling. Blockchain indicators show that while retail investors sold a significant amount of Ethereum last week, overshooting the massive accumulation phase, the derivatives market experienced sharp volatility, with total liquidations exceeding $88 million, primarily impacting highly leveraged long positions. Technically, Ethereum maintains a medium-term uptrend on the daily chart, with the spot price holding above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $2,405 and above the combined 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs between $2,223 and $2,256. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 59, reflecting a healthy slowdown in momentum rather than a complete trend reversal. The short-term downside support lies at the horizontal pivot point of $2431 and the 20-day exponential moving average, while deeper structural support is located near the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. On the upside, immediate technical resistance levels are at $2545 and $2626. If the daily close breaks decisively above these levels, it will pave the way for a move towards the resistance target at $2787.