FX.co ★ KHALISA | GBP/USD

Trading Journal Tuesday, September 29, 2026 GBPUSD Market Analysis

Hello, good morning everyone. I hope this bright morning is all going smoothly for all of us. By the way, how were yesterday's trading results for those of you who already had a trading plan? Were the plans executed according to the initial scenario? In my opinion, consistency in executing a plan remains a crucial part of the trading process, as the results of a single position aren't always a measure of overall success. Okay, back to the main topic. This morning I'll share another analysis to fill my daily journal, focusing on the GBPUSD currency pair. Looking at current market conditions, the downtrend remains quite valid. The price is still moving below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, so in terms of price structure and position, bearish pressure remains evident. As long as the price can't rebound and stay above the 50-day EMA, I still see the market as under selling pressure. However, this doesn't mean there's no upside potential. Looking closer, the price is currently above the middle Bollinger Band, and the MACD is also starting to show an increase in its histogram, which is above the signal line and approaching the zero line. This situation indicates buyer resistance. The increase isn't particularly strong, but buyers are attempting to slowly push the price up. The next important point to note is the price's approach to the upper Bollinger Band. This area can act as dynamic resistance, especially since the market is generally still in a downtrend. When the price reaches the upper band, buying pressure may begin to diminish and sellers may re-enter. Therefore, this area could be an interesting zone to monitor for rejection or confirmation of weakness. The confirmation I'm looking for is the price falling back below the middle Bollinger Band. Furthermore, the MACD histogram is also worth paying attention to. If the histogram extends downward again and approaches the signal line, even crossing or falling below it, this could strengthen the indication that seller momentum is starting to re-enter the market. Meanwhile, the supply area, marked in yellow around 1,332, is no longer effective as a primary selling reference. This is because the 50-day moving average (EMA) is currently below this supply area. Under these conditions, if the price manages to rise back towards that area, buyers still have enough power to push prices higher. Therefore, I don't want to rely too heavily on the 1,332 supply area as the sole reference for sell entries. For the scenario I'm currently considering, the primary focus is around the upper Bollinger Band, around 1.325–1.328. If the price enters this area and then forms a clear rejection, a sell opportunity could be considered. However, I still want to see additional confirmation, especially if the price falls back through the middle Bollinger Band. If this scenario does occur, a risk limit could be placed above today's high or the previous high, thus providing a clear invalidation of the position. As for the downside target, the 1.320 support area is a relevant initial target to watch. So for GBPUSD this morning, I still see the main trend as under bearish pressure, but short-term momentum indicates resistance from buyers. Therefore, I prefer to wait for a price reaction in the upper Bollinger Band area and seek confirmation before making a decision. This way, entry is not based solely on the assumption that the price is already high, but also on signals supporting the possibility of renewed selling pressure.