FX.co ★ sudheerkumar | New wave of futures

SMC Trendline + Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 + 1.5–1.7 Target Model

SMC Trendline + Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 + 1.5–1.7 Target Model This model combines Trendline Breakout, Liquidity Sweep, Fibonacci Retracement and Fibonacci Extension to build a structured SMC setup. The main idea is to use the trendline for direction, the 0.50–0.618 area for retracement/entry context, and the 1.5–1.7 extension area for potential target delivery. 1. TRENDLINE — FIND THE DIRECTION First identify a clear trendline connecting meaningful swing highs or swing lows. For a bullish setup, price should break above a descending trendline. For a bearish setup, price should break below an ascending trendline. The trendline break itself is not an automatic entry. It tells us that the previous short-term structure may be changing. Trendline Break → Liquidity → Retracement → Confirmation 2. LIQUIDITY SWEEP After the trendline break, identify where liquidity is resting. For a bullish setup, price may return toward a previous low and take sell-side liquidity. For a bearish setup, price may move toward a previous high and take buy-side liquidity. The important point is to wait for the market's reaction after the sweep. Liquidity Sweep ≠ Entry We need displacement and structural confirmation. 3. FIBONACCI 0.50–0.618 After identifying the relevant swing, apply Fibonacci to the move. The 0.50–0.618 region can be used as an important retracement area, particularly when it overlaps with: Liquidity zone Order Block FVG Previous Support/Resistance Discount or Premium Trendline retest When several of these factors meet, the area becomes more interesting for a potential setup. The Fibonacci level should therefore be treated as confluence, not as a standalone signal. 4. CONFIRMATION The Trendline Break + Liquidity Sweep creates the setup, but the actual execution should come only after price confirms a change in order flow. After liquidity is swept, observe the reaction: Liquidity Sweep → Displacement → CHoCH/BOS → Retracement → Entry A valid bullish confirmation requires price to reclaim the swept area with strong bullish displacement and break a relevant internal swing high. The broken structure should then hold as support during the retracement. For a bearish setup, price should reject the buy-side liquidity, produce bearish displacement, and break a relevant internal swing low. The retracement should then respect the newly formed bearish structure. The highest-quality confirmation occurs when the structural break aligns with the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement, while an Order Block or FVG provides the execution zone. Do not enter on the liquidity sweep itself. Do not enter on the first trendline break. Wait for displacement + structure confirmation + retracement. This converts a simple chart pattern into a liquidity-driven SMC execution model. 5. HOW 1.5–1.7 TARGETS ARE USED Once the entry is confirmed, Fibonacci extension levels can be projected from the relevant price swing. The 1.5 and 1.7 extension areas can be used as potential profit-taking zones when they also align with market liquidity or higher-timeframe structure. Think of it as: Entry → 1.0 → 1.5 → 1.7 → External Liquidity The 1.5 and 1.7 levels are potential target zones, not guaranteed prices. Before holding for an extended target, check whether significant liquidity, previous highs/lows or resistance/support exists in the path. 6. TARGET MANAGEMENT A practical approach is to avoid waiting blindly for 1.7. If price reaches the first meaningful liquidity area, consider managing the position according to your predefined plan. For example: TP1: Internal liquidity / first structural objective TP2: 1.5 Fibonacci extension TP3: 1.7 Fibonacci extension or external liquidity The exact targets should come from the chart structure rather than being forced by Fibonacci alone. COMPLETE SMC MODEL Trendline → Liquidity Sweep → Fib 0.50–0.618 → OB/FVG → CHoCH/BOS → Entry → 1.5 Extension → 1.7 Extension This creates a complete framework where every tool has a different job: Trendline = Direction Liquidity = Location Fib 0.50–0.618 = Retracement Area OB/FVG = Entry Confluence CHoCH/BOS = Confirmation 1.5–1.7 = Potential Extension Targets RISK MANAGEMENT & DISCIPLINE Never enter simply because price touches 0.50 or 0.618. Never assume that a trendline break guarantees continuation. Never assume that 1.5 or 1.7 must be reached. Define the invalidation level before entry, keep position size controlled, and never move the stop farther away because the trade is going against you. Avoid revenge trading and avoid increasing risk after a loss. The professional approach is to wait for the complete sequence rather than predicting the next candle. Direction → Liquidity → Retracement → Confirmation → Execution → Target

SMC Supply Zone + Trendline Rejection | Bearish Setup Price approached a major resistance/strong-high area while respecting the descending trendline. The repeated rejection near this area created a bearish reaction zone, followed by a BOS/CHoCH structure shift confirming weakness. The key idea is to wait for price to reach the trendline + resistance/supply confluence, then look for rejection and bearish confirmation rather than selling in the middle of the range. Bearish sequence: Strong High → Trendline Resistance → Liquidity/Equal High → Rejection → BOS/CHoCH → Sell Entry → Supply/External Liquidity The marked Supply Zone around 4,246 acts as the major downside objective. The invalidation is placed above the recent rejection/strong-high area, because a decisive break and acceptance above that level would weaken the bearish setup. Risk Management Define the stop before entry, keep position size controlled, and never widen the stop after entering. Do not chase the move after displacement. Key lesson: Trendline gives the context, liquidity provides the setup, structure confirms the direction, and the supply zone provides the target. Educational analysis only; this is not a guaranteed trade outcome

SMC Trendline Break + Liquidity Sweep + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 | Bullish Delivery This setup shows a structured bullish SMC model where price develops inside a contracting range while liquidity forms around the weak low/EQL area. Price first reacts from the lower liquidity zone and produces a CHoCH/BOS, indicating a potential shift in short-term structure. The descending trendline then becomes the key resistance. A confirmed breakout above the trendline suggests that bearish momentum is losing control. The Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 retracement zone is used as the main pullback area. Instead of chasing the breakout, the idea is to wait for price to return toward this zone and look for confirmation from the Order Block/FVG, liquidity reaction and market structure. Model: Liquidity Sweep → Trendline Break → CHoCH/BOS → Fib 0.50–0.618 → Retest → Confirmation → Bullish Delivery Once confirmation occurs, the objective is to target the next buy-side liquidity / strong high. Fibonacci extensions such as 1.5 and 1.7 can be used as potential extended targets when supported by market structure. Risk Management: The invalidation level should be defined below the setup/structural low before entry. Keep position size consistent, never widen the stop-loss, and avoid entering simply because price touches 0.50 or 0.618.