FX.co ★ PipsHunter99 | XAU/USD, GOLD

Technical and Fundamental Analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) Gold prices (XAU/USD) remained under pressure, trading around $4,140–$4,165 as rising US Treasury yields weighed on the precious metal. Investors are now looking ahead to the latest US economic data due later Friday, with the figures expected to provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook and potentially determine the next directional move for gold. US Treasury yields moved higher during the previous session, increasing the pressure on non-yielding assets. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed by around 4 basis points to 5.298%, while the 30-year yield advanced nearly 5 basis points to 5.642%. At the same time, renewed uncertainty surrounding the stalled US-Iran discussions aimed at ending the conflict has added another layer of caution across financial markets. Higher energy prices could increase costs across the wider economy and potentially contribute to persistent inflationary pressure. For gold, the combination of elevated yields and inflation concerns creates a mixed environment. Although bullion is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding an asset that does not generate interest income. Tai Wong, a trader at an independent precious-metals firm, noted that renewed strength in energy prices and a retreat in financial assets could restore demand for gold. He also pointed to the weaker core PCE figures, which have reduced expectations for another immediate rate increase. However, the broader environment remains challenging for bullion while Treasury yields stay elevated. Recent US inflation data has eased some pressure on expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 3.4% year over year in August, matching the revised July reading but remaining below the 3.7% market expectation. Core PCE inflation also rose 3.0% annually in August, unchanged from the revised July figure and below the initial 3.3% estimate. Federal Reserve officials continue to signal caution over the future path of monetary policy. Fed policymaker Neel Kashkari has maintained a relatively hawkish tone, suggesting that neutral interest rates could remain higher for longer and that additional policy tightening cannot be completely ruled out. Such comments are important for gold because expectations for higher rates can support Treasury yields and the US dollar, creating headwinds for bullion. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding consumer demand, broader economic growth, and the durability of investment outside the artificial-intelligence sector has encouraged investors to remain cautious. The combination of elevated yields, energy-price risks, and uncertainty over monetary policy means gold's next major move could depend heavily on incoming US economic data and whether markets begin pricing a more accommodative Fed stance. XAU/USD is trading near $4,165 after recently retreating from higher levels. Price action on both the H4 and H1 charts continues to show a short-term bearish structure, with gold remaining below the descending 20-period and 50-period SMAs. On the H4 chart, major supply is positioned around $4,200–$4,220. Previous selling pressure has repeatedly limited advances in this region, while the downward-sloping 20 SMA adds dynamic resistance. The 50 SMA is located higher in the mid-$4,200s, creating another layer of resistance and reinforcing the broader bearish setup. H4 demand is visible around $4,110–$4,140. This area contains recent swing lows and a previous consolidation base where buyers stepped in, making it an important zone to monitor if selling pressure pushes gold lower. On the H1 timeframe, immediate supply is concentrated near $4,180–$4,190. The 20 SMA has acted as a recurring barrier, while the 50 SMA provides additional resistance. H1 demand is located around $4,145–$4,150, where intraday buying interest has previously emerged. Immediate resistance is therefore clustered around $4,180–$4,200, followed by the stronger $4,220 region where H4 supply and the 50 SMA create additional overhead pressure. On the downside, $4,145–$4,150 is the first support area, followed by the broader $4,110–$4,140 H4 demand zone. As long as gold remains below the 20 and 50 SMAs on both timeframes, downside pressure remains dominant. A decisive break below $4,140 could expose deeper support, while a sustained move above $4,200 would be needed to weaken the current bearish structure and shift attention toward higher resistance levels.