FX.co ★ Helsinki | GBP/USD

The British pound edged lower on Thursday, retreating from the 1.3300 zone touched a day earlier and settling above the midpoint of the 1.3200 handle. Despite the pullback, the underlying fundamental backdrop remains supportive enough that traders should think twice before committing to aggressive directional bets. Sterling continues to draw backing from the upward revision to UK second-quarter GDP growth to 0.4%, which reaffirmed market expectations that the Bank of England will deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike at its November 5 meeting. That narrative has kept the pound relatively well-bid against most peers. By contrast, Monday's softer US PCE data trimmed expectations for an October Federal Reserve hike, offering the pound a modest tailwind. However, those gains have been partially offset by persistent dollar buying elsewhere, limiting how much room sterling has to appreciate. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders still assign roughly an 87% probability to the Fed raising rates before year-end, a level of conviction that has kept the greenback firmly supported. Reinforcing that dynamic, oil-driven inflation has held US Treasury yields near multi-year highs, maintaining the yield advantage that favours the dollar. On top of that, ongoing political uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran standoff has boosted safe-haven demand for the greenback, which recently touched a two-month high. That combination is what keeps the pound-dollar outlook cautious rather than outright bullish. Looking ahead, traders will monitor US economic data, including weekly initial jobless claims and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, alongside commentary from influential FOMC members and developments in the Middle East. All of these will drive dollar price action. That said, the primary focus remains squarely on Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report, which will shape the dollar's near-term trajectory and provide fresh impetus for GBP/USD. For anyone tracking the pound-dollar forecast right now, the message is clear: the pound has support, but the dollar still holds the stronger hand.

GBP/USD is trading near 1.3221. On the hourly chart, the 50-period moving average rests at 1.3250 while the 200-period average sits at 1.3275, placing price roughly 29 pips below the shorter average and about 54 pips beneath the longer one. Those two levels now form the first and second ceilings any bullish recovery attempt must overcome. On the four-hour chart, the 50-period average is positioned at 1.3275 and the 200-period average at 1.3470, leaving price about 54 pips below the shorter average and roughly 249 pips beneath the longer one. The standout technical feature is that the hourly 200-period average and the four-hour 50-period average both sit at 1.3275, merging into a reinforced resistance shelf at that level—the most important barrier on the chart right now. The first resistance barrier sits at 1.3250, aligning with the hourly 50-period average. Above it, the 1.3275 confluence forms a heavier hurdle, followed by 1.3300, a psychologically significant round number, and 1.3350. Further ceilings sit at 1.3400 and 1.3470, the latter aligning with the four-hour 200-period average. On the downside, initial support rests at 1.3200, another round number that has cushioned recent declines. A break below would expose 1.3175, then 1.3150, with 1.3120 marking a deeper demand area likely to attract buyers. Looking ahead, if GBP/USD holds above 1.3200 and pushes through 1.3250, buyers could target the 1.3275 confluence and potentially 1.3300 beyond it. Should selling pressure intensify and 1.3200 give way, a deeper correction toward 1.3175 and 1.3150 becomes increasingly probable. A sustained break below 1.3150 would open the door to 1.3120, while a daily close above 1.3275 would be the first meaningful signal that the bearish structure is finally weakening. The broader bias stays bearish while price remains beneath the four-hour averages, but the next move hinges on whether buyers can defend 1.3200 and how markets digest Friday's payrolls report alongside Fed commentary and Middle East developments.