FX.co ★ berta.hill | EUR/USD

D1 chart - EURUSD pair. The wave structure formally still builds its order upwards, although in essence it is already neutral. The MACD indicator is in the lower oversold area and below its signal line. Earlier the bullish pattern — a descending wedge — was broken to the upside. It's not even a daily one, but a weekly one — the wedge is that large. After its upside breakout and rise there was a pullback down. And it initially reached the expected support level 1.1463. From there there was an attempt to rise, but instead a consolidation zone formed. Apparently many more buyers had accumulated, as a result the price was strongly dragged down. And overall the US dollar was strengthening in the market. The level was pushed through; essentially a pullback to test it should occur since there hasn't been a test after the breakout yet. An additional factor indicating a corrective rise to the level is the CCI indicator, which shows a bullish divergence. And overall it’s about time for a correction; other pairs are also sitting at their highs or lows, and there are technical signals for a correction there. The same divergence, for example, exists in places on the four-hour charts. There is no point in selling at the bottom of the move; you still need to wait for a pullback to the level and then consider entering short on smaller timeframes. The price may try to update this year's low, but most likely only via a pullback. An alternative scenario would be if the resistance level 1.1463 only produces a bounce down and is then broken to the upside. It would then change its status from resistance to support. In that case the price is likely to reach the next level 1.1573. Apparently some fundamental factors influenced the strengthening of the US dollar. Although maybe it's still the lingering effect from the Fed's interest rate decision, which was raised for the first time in three years. After they did that the price flowed down and even the strong support at 1.1463 couldn't stop the decline. The level was broken and the price plummeted down, updating the year's low; a correction is expected.

On the four-hour chart it's visible what previously prevented the price from rising. This is the horizontal resistance level 1.1366. It repelled the buyers' attack, the price updated the low again. The bullish divergence on the MACD has not yet played out and a new attempt to rise is expected. Moreover a new month has begun; the last one was completely downward and large — we need to go deeper into the past month. Important news for today: 15-30 - Initial jobless claims for unemployment benefits in the US. 16-45 - US Manufacturing activity index (PMI).