FX.co ★ Aimee | EUR/USD

Technical Analysis 07 October 2026 EUR/USD H-1 The EUR/USD 1-hour chart displays a sudden bearish sell-off following a brief pullback toward the 1.12670 region. Price action has dropped below its dynamic 50-period Moving Average and is now directly testing the crucial horizontal baseline near 1.11949, putting immediate pressure on short-term buyers. 1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis * Downside Extension: Following a minor relief rally from the 1.11710 low up to 1.12670, EUR/USD lost upward momentum, initiating a sharp downward wave across the hourly timeframe. * Pivot Level Test: The horizontal line at 1.11949 serves as a vital structural threshold. A sustained hourly candle close below this level exposes the multi-day support floor at 1.11710, whereas holding above it allows for potential consolidation. * Dynamic Resistance: The 50-period moving average (red line) is sloping downward above price, providing dynamic overhead resistance near 1.12190. 2. Technical Indicators * RSI (14): Currently reads 28.97, dipping into oversold territory, which confirms aggressive selling pressure while signaling that a temporary pause or corrective pullback could manifest. * MACD & Bears Indicator: The MACD histogram sits in negative territory at -0.000744 below its signal line (0.000118). The Bears Power indicator reads -0.004877, confirming strong seller dominance during the recent drop. 3. Point-to-Point Trade Setup Scenario A: Bearish Continuation (Primary Breakdown Setup) * Trigger: An H1 candle close cleanly below 1.11900 (confirming a loss of the horizontal pivot line). * Entry Point: Sell Market / Sell Stop at 1.11870 (or Sell Limit on a retest of 1.11940). * Stop Loss (SL): 1.12250 (placed safely above local structure and dynamic MA resistance). * Take Profit (TP1): 1.11710 (retest of major swing low support). * Take Profit (TP2): 1.11450 (extended downside target). * Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.6 (TP1) / ~1:2.5 (TP2) Scenario B: Bullish Rebound (Contrarian Setup) * Trigger: An H1 bullish rejection pattern (e.g., pin bar or engulfing candle) closing back above 1.12100. * Entry Point: Buy Market / Buy Stop at 1.12130. * Stop Loss (SL): 1.11700 (placed below the key support low). * Take Profit (TP1): 1.12400 (intermediate structural resistance). * Take Profit (TP2): 1.12670 (retest of recent swing high). Risk/RewardRatio: ~1:2.2 (TP1) / ~1:3.1 (TP2). This bullish scenario suggests that if the market shows a strong rejection at the identified level, traders can capitalize on the upward momentum, potentially leading to a more favorable market position. Proper risk management will be essential to maximize gains while minimizing losses.In addition to the outlined strategy, it’s important for traders to remain vigilant of economic news and events that could impact market sentiment. Monitoring these factors can provide further insights and help in making informed decisions throughout the trade. Ratio: ~1:1.6 (TP1) / ~1:2.6 (TP2) Execution Summary Focus closely on how the current hourly candle closes relative to 1.11949. A confirmed breakdown below 1.11900 favors short setups toward 1.11710, while reclaiming 1.12100 shifts short-term momentum back toward 1.12400.