FX.co ★ Sud | #Ethereum chart analysis

Ethereum (ETH) saw a slight and temporary rally on Friday, rising by about 3% in 24 hours, but its spot price remained trapped below the psychologically important $2,500 level, with derivatives indicators continuing to highlight its potential structural fragility. Earlier this week, amid the price decline, total open positions in derivatives contracts surged to 13.29 million ETH on Thursday before quickly falling back to 12.83 million ETH. This temporary spike and subsequent sharp drop in open positions, coupled with the accelerating decline in spot prices and negative funding rates, suggests that the initial outflows were primarily driven by short sellers who capitalized on the bearish momentum. As a result, long sellers bore the brunt of the market volatility, facing liquidations of nearly $400 million on Wednesday and Thursday alone—a massive sell-off that far exceeds the volume of Bitcoin liquidations, according to CryptoQuant. This sharp sell-off coincides with Ethereum’s net trading volume, an indicator that measures the net difference between buy and sell orders in perpetual contracts. Since early September, this indicator has remained negative, highlighting continued short selling by both institutional and retail derivatives traders, despite cyclical price rallies. In the spot market, selling pressure is particularly pronounced on US exchanges, leading to a significant decline in global market valuations. On Thursday, the Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US spot market continued its decline, recording net outflows of $56.1 million, marking the ninth consecutive day of capital flight. This brings net redemptions for the week to over $542 million, the largest weekly outflow since January, according to SoSoValue tracking data. The Coinbase Premium indicator confirms the continued selling pressure in the US; this indicator measures the spot price difference between Coinbase Pro (in US dollars) and Binance (in digital US dollars). After a slight recovery in early October, the index recently plummeted to -0.077, clearly indicating that selling pressure from US institutions far outweighs international demand. Beyond the dynamics of cryptocurrencies, broader global economic challenges have exacerbated risk aversion. The continued rise in Brent crude oil prices and the persistently high 10-year US Treasury yield above 5.2% are draining liquidity from high-risk digital assets. From a technical analysis perspective, the daily outlook for Ethereum remains fairly neutral with a slight downward bias. The spot price is holding steady above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at around $2,344, while receiving strong support from the 50- and 20-day EMAs at $2,501 and $2,606, respectively. This situation reflects a consolidation phase following the recent market pullback. Momentum indicators also support this view. For example, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to around 40, and the Stochastic Oscillator is approaching 23, indicating weakening upward momentum, though it has not yet reached oversold levels. On the upside, immediate technical resistance coincides with the 50-day moving average at $2,501, followed by the supply zone around $2,548, and then the 20-day moving average around $2,606. Higher structural resistance levels are at $2,637, $2,782, $3,076, and $3,253. On the downside, initial support lies at $2,355, which coincides with the 100-day moving average, while deeper pullback support levels at $2,205, $1,972, and $1,828 represent key demand zones that long-term value buyers may enter. Looking ahead, Ethereum’s ability to transition from its current consolidation structure to a sustained price recovery hinges heavily on the stabilization of US market funds and a reversal of the recent trend of institutional spot ETF redemptions. If high Treasury yields and persistent short positions in derivatives continue to dominate market movements, Ethereum’s price could remain trapped below its key moving averages, further pressuring the $2,355 support level. Conversely, a decisive close above the 50-day moving average around $2,501 would help offset the short-term bearish momentum, mitigate the impact of negative funding rates, and pave the way for a potential move towards higher resistance levels. Until derivative funding rates stabilize and spot ETF outflows subside, market participants should expect Ethereum’s price to remain range-bound within its key moving averages.