FX.co ★ amiron56 | EUR/USD

EURUSD At 1.1240 - Weekly H4 M15 - Fundamental Dollar PMI Europe - Psychology 1 - FVG OB Mapping Around 1.1240 On EURUSD chart at 1.1240 handle, I see weekly rejection ceiling at 1.19010 to 1.20760 still intact as ultimate bearish Order Block. On weekly low, I see 1.1150 multi-month low recently swept as Sell Side Liquidity. On structure, I log bearish Market Structure Shift after Break Of Structure below 1.1500 that we track as confirmation of corrective leg. On premium side, we map Bearish Fair Value Gap weekly at 1.19010 to 1.20760 with 174 pips as unmitigated ultimate supply ceiling since major top. On intermediate premium, I see Bearish Fair Value Gap at 1.1450 to 1.1600 as clean resistance. On discount side, I see Bullish Fair Value Gap at 1.10210 to 1.1150 as support below current where Sell Side Liquidity stacks. On Order Blocks, I define Bearish Order Block weekly at 1.19010 to 1.20760 with 175 pips holding major rejection wick where institutions distributed euro heavily. On H4 chart, I see Bearish Order Block at 1.12570 to 1.12815 with 24.5 pips as immediate overhead resistance aligning with previous Break Of Structure. On weekly demand, I see Bullish Order Block at 1.10210 to 1.1150 with 129 pips below current holding multi-month low support floor where buy stops rest. On deeper discount, I see Bullish Order Block at 1.08460 with 176 pips below ultimate Sell Side Liquidity pool. On current price, I calculate 1.1240 sits 66 pips below 1.1257 lower edge premium supply and 667 pips below ultimate supply 1.19010 and 90 pips above 1.1150 minor sell side and 219 pips above 1.10210 major sell side. On liquidity, I see Buy Side Liquidity above swing highs up to 1.19010 in dense layers and Sell Side Liquidity beneath support floors down toward 1.10210 and 1.08460 in thick pools that we monitor. 2 - Weekly H4 M15 Compression On Weekly EURUSD chart, I see dominant structural bearish layout persisting after major rejection near 1.19010 to 1.20760 supply ceiling. On weekly timeframe, price trades lower within active corrective leg hovering around 1.1240 handle that we track. On weekly EMA 65, I see price holding below as dynamic resistance. On weekly close, I see break below previous Break Of Structure at 1.1500 confirming Market Structure Shift bearish. On weekly liquidity, I see massive imbalances with dense Buy Side Liquidity above swing highs up to 1.19010 and thick Sell Side Liquidity stacked beneath support floors down toward 1.10210 and 1.08460. On weekly momentum, I see RSI 14 near 36.57 with strong downward momentum shifting toward oversold extremes. On stochastic, I see fast lines depressed near lower boundary showing persistent macro selling pressure that we observe. On H4 EURUSD chart, I see corrective consolidation phase after aggressive flush toward multi-month lows near 1.1150. On H4 resistance, I see immediate overhead zone cleanly defined around 1.12570 to 1.12815 with 24.5 pips premium supply. On H4 price action, I see compression around 1.1240 pivot showing hesitation. On H4 indicators, I see mid range RSI and choppy Stochastic highlighting range bound behavior as institutional algorithms build positioning ahead of central bank decisions that we monitor. On H4 imbalance, I see Bearish Fair Value Gap at 1.12815 to 1.1350 unmitigated above resistance as optimal reaction area for continuation plays and Bullish Fair Value Gap at 1.1150 to 1.1200 as discount support below current. On M15 EURUSD chart, I see tight compression around 1.1240 pivot area between 1.1235 to 1.1245 with narrow range of 10 pips. On M15 structure, I see after sweeping internal liquidity downside price formed minor structural shifts upward with minor Change Of Character settling in narrow range. On M15 indicators, I see RSI hovering near 54.58 and Stochastic lines converging around midpoint 50 signaling impending volatility expansion from consolidation box that we track.

3 - Fundamental Fixed Dollar PMI Europe Single Para Different Angle On fundamental side, I consolidate environment into one brand unique paragraph with different angle. On Dollar Index, I see resilient United States Dollar at 105.5 to 106.5 backed by sticky United States inflation prints and hawkish Federal Reserve rate path which recently dragged EURUSD toward multi-month lows near 1.1150 that we observed. On US data, I see Core CPI at 3.6 percent above forecast, Producer Price Index sticky, Federal Reserve dot plot maintains higher for longer rate path at 5.25 to 5.50 percent with two cuts delayed to late 2025. On European side, I see structural and fiscal concerns capping upside for single currency with Eurozone debt to GDP at 88 percent, Germany manufacturing contraction at 41.2 PMI, France fiscal deficit at 5.5 percent GDP, Italy spread BTP Bund at 150 basis points widening. On upcoming catalysts, I see market participants closely monitoring preliminary global manufacturing and services PMI releases with Eurozone Manufacturing forecast at 44.5, Services at 50.2, United States Manufacturing at 48.5, Services at 51.8. On intermarket correlation, I see sensitivity between global bond yields with 10 year United States at 4.45 percent up 15 basis points, German Bund at 2.35 percent, energy prices Brent at 89.80 and crude at 97.57 and currency valuations underlining necessity of tracking macro cross asset flows that we monitor. On calendar, I see risk from European Central Bank Lagarde speech and Federal Reserve Powell testimony which can easily invalidate tight intraday ranges and trigger aggressive structural sweeps. 4 - Bulls Bears Psychology Strength Weakness Different Angle On bulls side, I map limited and tactical strength. On M15 chart, I see bulls defended 1.1150 multi-month low recent flush with minor Change Of Character upward between 1.1235 to 1.1245 with tight compression of 10 pips that we track. On relief attempt, I see bulls trying bounce above 1.1240 pivot toward 1.1257 to 1.1281 premium supply. On bulls weakness, I see clear failure at 1.19010 to 1.20760 supply ceiling ultimate bearish Order Block rejection with 174 pips and failure to reclaim 1.1257 to 1.1281 resistance with 24.5 pips premium supply. On weekly RSI, I see 36.57 oversold but without bullish divergence and Stochastic depressed near lower boundary showing persistent selling. On bears side, I see dominant and structural strength. On weekly displacement, I see bears pushed price from 1.19010 to 1.20760 rejection down to 1.1150 with 751 points displacement that we observed. On H4 resistance, I see bears defended 1.1257 to 1.1281 bearish Order Block with Break Of Structure below 1.12815. On momentum, I see bears control weekly momentum with RSI at 36.57 downward. On bears weakness, I see inability to break and hold below 1.1150 Sell Side Liquidity sweep decisively, with minor M15 structural shifts upward showing short covering that we note. On market psychology, I see phase transitions from euphoria at 1.19010 to 1.20760 top early 2026 where retail long euro above 1.19, to distribution at 1.19 to 1.20 with volume divergence, to anxiety at 1.15 Break Of Structure below 1.1500, to panic at 1.1150 multi-month low flush. On current price at 1.1240, I see depression to hope transition at pivot awaiting PMI catalyst that we monitor. 5 - Scenario Bullish Bearish Blueprint Different Angle On bearish scenario, I build primary institutional positioning blueprint favoring short side setups upon successful retracement and rejection test of premium 1.1257 to 1.1281 supply zone that we track. On H4 chart, I see entry at mitigation of Bearish Order Block at 1.1257 to 1.1281 and Bearish Fair Value Gap at 1.1281 to 1.1350 from below as bearish breaker resistance. On confirmation, I need bearish Break Of Structure below 1.1235 M15 low and Market Structure Shift below 1.1240 pivot and Change Of Character bearish. On targets, I see initial support near 1.1200 with 40 pips below and deeper liquidity pools toward 1.1150 with 90 pips below and 1.10210 with 223 pips below and 1.08460 with 393 pips below ultimate sell side. On invalidation, I see bullish close above 1.12815 and above 1.1300 and above H4 Exponential Moving Average 65. On risk reward, I plan 1 to 2.8 that we track. On bullish alternative, I see contingency planning for counter trend relief move requiring monitoring lower timeframe structural Change Of Character confirmations following sudden sweep of Sell Side Liquidity beneath major support. On weekly demand, I see entry at mitigation of Bullish Order Block at 1.10210 to 1.1150 and Bullish Fair Value Gap H4 at 1.1150 to 1.1200 from above as bullish breaker support after sweep of Sell Side Liquidity below 1.1150 and below 1.10210. On bullish confirmation, I need Break Of Structure above 1.1245 M15 high and Market Structure Shift above 1.1257 and Change Of Character bullish. On bullish targets, I see 1.1281 minor premium, 1.1350 intermediate, 1.1450, and 1.19010 to 1.20760 ultimate Buy Side Liquidity with 661 points above. 6 - Trading Main Correction Risk Outlook On main trend, I fix weekly dominant structural bearish layout after major rejection at 1.19010 to 1.20760 supply ceiling. On correction trend, I see H4 corrective consolidation phase after flush toward 1.1150 and M15 tight compression between 1.1235 to 1.1245 awaiting volatility expansion that we track. On main trend trading opportunity, I see short with trend below premium supply at 1.1257 to 1.1281. On H4 chart, I see entry at Bearish Order Block at 1.1257 to 1.1281 retest from below. On risk, I place stop above 1.12815 and above 1.1300 with 30 pips risk. On targets, I see 1.1200 with 57 pips, 1.1150 with 107 pips, 1.10210 with 236 pips, 1.08460 with 411 pips. On risk reward, I plan 1 to 3.5 that we track. On confirmation, I need bearish Break Of Structure below 1.1235 M15 and Market Structure Shift below 1.1240 pivot. On correction trend trading opportunity, I see long counter trend relief above Sell Side Liquidity sweep below 1.1150 and below 1.10210. On weekly demand, I see entry at Bullish Order Block at 1.10210 to 1.1150 and Bullish Fair Value Gap H4 at 1.1150 to 1.1200 from above after sweep. On correction risk, I place stop below 1.10210 and below 1.08460 with 180 pips risk. On correction targets, I see 1.1240 pivot with 120 pips, 1.1281 premium with 170 pips, 1.1350 with 250 pips. On risk management, I emphasize strict position sizing at 0.5 to 0.7 percent risk, predetermined stop losses above Order Block and below Order Block, and disciplined risk to reward ratios essential that we emphasize. On concluding outlook, I see synthesis of multi timeframe Smart Money Concepts with upcoming fundamental data points allowing traders to align with institutional footprints effectively. ```