FX.co ★ teagan.orn | #Bitcoin chart analysis

Hello crypto people! BTC/USD continues to decline, so I continue to trade on the short side. As long as the price of Bitcoin remains below 83 200–84 000, I expect a return to 80 000. A hold below 80 000 opens the way to 76 500. A daily close above 84 000 invalidates the scenario. Bitcoin's trend depends on capital flows into ETFs, central bank rates and the dollar exchange rate. Right now these factors are pushing the cryptocurrency down. Spot ETFs lost $261 mln in a day, the cumulative October result turned negative by $276,2 mln. The average cost basis of ETF holders is around $81 722, meaning the price sits right on it. Above the price there is a dense supply zone from long-term holders at $84 000–85 000. The probability of a Fed rate hike -800% US CPI for September rose to 3.7%, PPI to 6.3%. A decline in inflation is not expected, oil is holding around $100. Warsh's speech on Friday supported Bitcoin; the Fed chair gave no signals on the rate, and the 10-year Treasuries yield fell to 5.10%. Among the upcoming events of the week I would note the absence of important macro statistics for the US. In addition, the Fed is entering a "quiet period" ahead of the meeting on October 27–28, the ECB will decide on rates on the 29th.