FX.co ★ teagan.orn | #Bitcoin chart analysis

Hello crypto folks! BTC/USD continues to decline, so I continue trading short. As long as Bitcoin's price is below 83 200–84 000, I expect a return to 80 000. A close below 80 000 opens the way to 76 500. A daily close above 84 000 invalidates the scenario. Bitcoin's trend depends on capital flows into ETFs, central bank rates and the dollar exchange rate. Right now these factors are forcing the cryptocurrency to fall. Spot ETFs lost $261m in a day, the cumulative October total went negative by $276.2m. The average cost basis of ETF holders is around $81 722, meaning the price sits right on it. Above the price there is a dense supply zone of long-term holders at $84 000–85 000. Probability of a Fed rate hike -800%. US CPI for September rose to 3.7%, PPI to 6.3%. A decline in inflation is not expected, oil is holding around $100. Warsch's speech on Friday supported Bitcoin; the Fed chair did not give signals on the rate, and the 10-year Treasuries yield fell to 5.10%. Among the upcoming events of the week I would note the absence of important US macro data. Also the Fed goes into a "quiet period" before the meeting on 27–28 October, the ECB decides on rates on the 29th.