FX.co ★ Pi-Network | EUR/USD

The provided weekly (W1) chart for EURUSD displays a classic long-term cyclical market structure, transitioning from a pronounced downtrend into a robust bullish recovery, followed by the onset of a current corrective phase. The primary macro trend from early 2024 into late 2024 was distinctly bearish, culminating in a significant swing low. However, this low marked a major structural shift, initiating a powerful impulsive leg upward. The market structure then transitioned into a bullish phase characterized by higher highs and higher lows throughout late 2024 and the first half of 2025. Currently, the price action has shifted from this impulsive upward trajectory into a complex corrective structure. The presence of a visible moving average (red line) tracking the price suggests it is acting as dynamic resistance in the current phase, with the price recently crossing below it, signaling a loss of short-term bullish momentum. In terms of classical price action and key levels, the chart reveals critical zones for market participants. The most immediate significant horizontal support is marked by the teal line at 1.12389, which aligns closely with the current price action. A sustained weekly close below this level would open the door for a deeper retracement toward the structural swing lows near the 1.06310 region. Above the current price, the nearest major resistance is the recent swing high formed in the first half of 2025, which sits just below the 1.17275 level. Visually, the chart exhibits a potential complex topping pattern resembling a broad head and shoulders, or a wide double-top structure, where the late 2024 rally formed the first peak, a higher peak formed in 2025, and the current price action is forming a right shoulder. Additionally, the RSI(14) is currently at 36.57, indicating bearish momentum but approaching oversold territory, while the MACD is negative (-0.007678) and trending downward, confirming the current bearish correction. The current market structure is defined by a transition from a bullish trend into a bearish corrective phase. The price is currently testing a critical structural pivot at 1.12389. The lower indicators support this bearish bias, with the MACD histogram showing increasing negative momentum and the signal lines pointing lower. However, the RSI sitting near 36 suggests that the bearish move may be overextended in the short term, making the current support level a potential bounce zone. The market is essentially at a crossroads, deciding whether this is a deep pullback within a broader uptrend or the beginning of a new macro downtrend. The failure of the price to hold above the moving average is a warning sign for bulls, shifting the immediate bias to the downside. Trade Setup & Scenarios: · Bullish Scenario: If the price finds strong buyers at the 1.12389 support level and forms a bullish reversal candlestick pattern (e.g., a pin bar or engulfing pattern) on the weekly timeframe, a long position could be considered. The initial target would be a retest of the moving average, followed by the 1.17275 resistance zone. A stop loss should be placed below the recent weekly swing lows (around 1.11128). · Bearish Scenario: If the price decisively breaks and closes below the 1.12389 support on a weekly basis, it confirms the bearish correction. A short position could be initiated on a retest of the broken support. The primary target would be the next major structural support near 1.06310. A stop loss should be placed above the recent swing high (1.13620). · Summary: The EURUSD weekly chart shows a corrective bearish phase testing a critical support level. While the broader trend was once bullish, the current momentum is downward. Traders should wait for a clear weekly close or a strong reversal signal at the 1.12389 level before committing to a directional trade.