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BTC/USD Forecast: Bitcoin Rebounds to 82,710 but Pressure Persis

Last week, the BTC/USD pair corrected lower under pressure from monetary factors, reaching a five-week low of 79720.00. It then recovered part of its losses and is currently trading near 82710.00. Assets that compete with the US dollar, including digital ones, came under pressure after September inflation data in the United States reinforced concerns about another round of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. The Consumer Price Index increased from 3.4% to 3.7% year-on-year, above the expected 3.6%, while the core indicator rose from 2.4% to 2.6%, compared with forecasts of 2.5%. At the same time, the Producer Price Index accelerated from 5.6% to 6.3%, while analysts had expected a decline to 5.3%, and the core measure advanced from 4.8% to 5.0% instead of easing to 4.4%. However, comments from members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) that followed the release of the data were relatively restrained. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh gave an upbeat assessment of the US economy and said future monetary policy decisions were not predetermined and would depend on incoming data. As a result, expectations of an October rate hike eased, allowing the cryptocurrency sector to recover part of its recent losses. Even so, traders still expect the Fed to retain a broadly hawkish stance later this year, as geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf continue to support energy prices and keep inflation risks elevated. Similar monetary themes were highlighted in our previous BTC/USD forecast. Additional pressure on the asset is coming from uncertainty surrounding tokenized securities projects in the United States. Although OKXICE, the joint venture between crypto exchange OKX and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), has outlined plans to launch a platform for tokenized equities under the SEC's innovation framework, the segment continues to face legal, reputational and liquidity-related concerns. This broader regulatory uncertainty is limiting enthusiasm for tokenized assets and remains a mildly negative factor for sentiment across parts of the digital asset market. Overall, BTC/USD may remain under pressure in the near term, as sentiment in the sector is still fragile. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index moved into neutral territory at 53, while market trackers indicated that Bitcoin ETF products recorded net outflows of around $228.4 million last week. Support and resistance levels The trading instrument is approaching 81250.00 (Murray level ). If the price consolidates below this mark, a move toward 75000.00 (Murray level ) and 71875.00 (Murray level ) is expected. However, if the price breaks above the middle Bollinger Band at 84375.00 (Murray level ), growth may resume toward 87500.00 (Murray level ), 93750.00 (Murray level ) and 97520.00 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement). Technical indicators do not provide a unified signal: Bollinger Bands are turning downward, the MACD histogram is preparing to move into negative territory, and the Stochastic oscillator is approaching the oversold zone. Resistance levels: 84375.00, 87500.00, 93750.00, 97520.00. Support levels: 81250.00, 75000.00, 71875.00. BTC/USD Trading Scenarios and Price Forecast Short positions may be opened from 80000.00 with targets at 75000.00, 68750.00 and 62500.00, with a stop-loss at 83600.00. Estimated implementation period: 5–7 days. Long positions may be opened above 84375.00 with targets at 87500.00, 93750.00 and 97520.00, with a stop-loss at 82300.00. Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 80000.00 Take Profit 75000.00, 68750.00, 62500.00 Stop Loss 83600.00 Key Levels 71875.00, 75000.00, 81250.00, 84375.00, 87500.00, 93750.00, 97520.00 Alternative Scenario Recommendation BUY STOP Entry Point 84375.00 Take Profit 87500.00, 93750.00, 97520.00 Stop Loss 82300.00 Key Levels 71875.00, 75000.00, 81250.00, 84375.00, 87500.00, 93750.00, 97520.00