FX.co ★ berta.hill | EUR/USD

Waiting for a Breakout or Rejection at the 1.1236 Area

The EUR/USD currency pair on the H1 timeframe shows quite dynamic price movement after experiencing a sharp decline down to near the 1.1115 area, then reversing upward significantly. Based on the chart, the price managed to form a bullish recovery and moved toward the 1.1260 area before correcting. Currently, the price is around 1.1228, slightly below the daily Pivot Point 1.1236. This condition indicates the market is in a direction-determining area, so traders need to pay attention to price reactions to key levels before making trading decisions. The Pivot Point 1.1236 becomes the key level that determines the tendency of subsequent price movements. As long as the price cannot break through and hold above that level, selling pressure still has the potential to emerge. Conversely, if the price manages to surpass 1.1236 with strong bullish momentum, the opportunity for an increase toward Resistance 1 at 1.1266 will be more open. If the 1.1266 level is successfully broken, the next target is Resistance 2 at 1.1298, then Resistance 3 at 1.1328. For the bearish scenario, Support 1 at 1.1205 becomes the initial defense that needs to be observed. If the price breaks this level and the H1 candle closes below it, downward pressure may continue toward Support 2 at 1.1175. If selling pressure becomes stronger, Support 3 at 1.1143 becomes the next downside target. Those levels can be used as references to identify price reaction areas and determine potential risk-to-reward ratios. The first strategy is to look for buy opportunities if the price can break the Pivot Point 1.1236 and perform a retest with a convincing bullish reaction. Additional confirmation can be the formation of a strong bullish candle as well as an increase in buying momentum. The first profit target can be set at 1.1266, with a continued target at 1.1298 if the first resistance is successfully broken. The stop-loss can be placed below the retest area or based on the nearest swing low structure, taking market volatility into account. The second strategy is to look for sell opportunities if the price fails to break 1.1236 and forms a bearish rejection pattern. Confirmation will be stronger if the price then breaks Support 1 at 1.1205. In that case, the downside target can be directed to 1.1175, then 1.1143 if bearish momentum continues. The stop-loss should preferably be placed above the rejection area or the nearest swing high, not solely based on a fixed distance. The Stochastic Indicator (5,3,3) shows values around 80.95 and 66.72. The indicator lines moving up toward the 80 area indicate an increase in short-term bullish momentum, but also indicate that the price is starting to approach the overbought zone. This condition does not automatically mean the price will fall. Traders need to wait for the Stochastic line crossover, price reaction at the Pivot Point, and candle confirmation before opening positions. Conclusion and Risk Management Overall, EUR/USD is testing the important 1.1236 area after experiencing a price recovery. The bullish bias will be more convincing if the price can hold above the pivot and move toward 1.1266. Conversely, rejection at the pivot area followed by a break of 1.1205 can open bearish opportunities toward the next supports. Avoid opening positions based on a single indicator. Use price action confirmation, set stop-loss, and limit the risk of each trade according to available capital. All levels are reference points for analysis, not guarantees of price movement, so trading decisions must still be adjusted to current market conditions.