FX.co ★ sudheerkumar | New wave of futures

Value area 80% rule: 5 live Nasdaq setups, 3 worked

The 80% rule is one of the best-known ideas in market profile. Here is how it works, and how it actually did on Nasdaq futures over the last month. THE RULE Take yesterday's value area (the 70% of volume around the POC). Today the cash session opens outside it, above VAH or below VAL. Price then trades back inside and is accepted there: two consecutive 30-minute periods close inside the value area. Then the odds favour a move to the other side of yesterday's value area. It is a conditional rule: no acceptance inside, no setup. DATA CME Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (NQ), 5-minute bars with real exchange volume, cash session only (13:30-20:00 UTC), 5-point bins, value area = 70% of volume. Sample: 21 sessions, 23 Sep to 21 Oct 2026. The indicator on the chart builds full-session profiles, so its levels can differ a little from these cash-session numbers. RESULTS 16 of 21 sessions opened outside the prior value area. Only 5 of those 16 gave the trigger (two 30-minute closes back inside). 3 of the 5 reached the other side in the same session (60%, not 80%). Small sample, so read it as a description of this month, not a probability. EXAMPLES 1) Worked, Friday 16 Oct. Thursday's value: 29,665-29,995. Friday opened at 30,023.75, above VAH. The 13:30 and 14:00 periods both closed inside, so the trigger came at 14:30 (close 29,814.75). Price reached Thursday's VAL 29,665 in the 15:00 period and the session went on down to 29,268.75. 2) Failed, Tuesday 20 Oct. Monday's value: 29,680-29,840. Tuesday opened at 29,594, below VAL. Two periods closed inside by 16:00 (29,788), but the high stopped at 29,797.75 and never reached Monday's VAH 29,840. 3) No setup, Wednesday 21 Oct. Tuesday's value: 29,520-29,775. Wednesday opened at 29,874.50, above VAH. The low was 29,771, a 4-point poke into value with no 30-minute close inside. No acceptance, no rule; price instead ran to 30,113. HOW TO USE IT Mark yesterday's VAH, VAL and POC before the open. Wait for the open outside value, then for acceptance back inside. A single touch of the edge is not enough (example 3). The far edge is the reference. If price leaves value again on the side it came from, the setup is cancelled. Track your own hit rate on your market; the name promises more than the data delivered here. For Thursday 22 Oct: Wednesday's cash-session value is 29,810-30,025, POC 29,870.