FX.co ★ Crude | CL/Crude Oil

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark for US crude, fell during Asian trading on Thursday, approaching the mid-$100 per barrel area, but its downward trend was largely limited by lingering uncertainty from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Recent diplomatic developments have injected caution into energy markets, most notably Qatar-led regional mediation efforts aimed at resuming direct talks between Washington and Tehran to avoid a larger military conflict. In addition, there are reports that US Vice President Vance has sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, once again demanding the resumption of the deadlocked peace negotiations. While these diplomatic efforts have raised hopes that the situation may be de-escalating, putting downward pressure on crude oil futures, the ongoing conflict between the Iran-backed Houthi rebels and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government has kept the large geopolitical risk premium firmly anchored in energy prices. Additionally, recent intelligence reports show that US officials have recommended that several Gulf Arab partners launch short-term, violent military operations against Iran after the US midterm elections on November 3. This intelligence continues to rein in aggressive short positions, effectively limiting the scope for oil price declines in the short term. Judging from the technical chart analysis on the daily chart, WTI maintains a moderate uptrend in the short term, holding firmly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $99.33, well supported by the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) currently located near $96.20. Momentum indicators reflect a balanced but cautious market environment. The 14-period RSI is hovering near the neutral point of 50, indicating that the market is range-bound and lacks strong monocular momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator is slightly negative, indicating that any upcoming rise is likely to be gradual and steady rather than sudden. However, the underlying technical bias remains to the upside as long as spot prices remain above key structural support levels. If selling pressure intensifies and falls below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement support at USD 99.33, WTI is expected to face strong technical buying between the Fibonacci support area at USD 96.85 and the 100-period moving average at USD 96.20. A break below this broader demand area could expose a deeper bounce at $94.85 and stronger structural support at $92.84, where a larger buildup of buying could occur. On the upside, the recent Fibonacci high at $103.34 constitutes immediate technical resistance. Confirmation of a sharp move above this key overhead resistance would set the stage for a stronger advance towards higher multi-week price targets, clearing the current consolidation range and reaffirming the broader uptrend driven by persistent supply vulnerabilities and geopolitical risk premia.