FX.co ★ PipsHunter99 | AUD/USD

Technical and Fundamental Analysis of the AUD/USD Pair AUD/USD retreated on Thursday, falling approximately 0.14% to trade near 0.7040 after reaching a monthly high of 0.7068. The Australian dollar came under pressure as the US dollar regained ground ahead of the release of preliminary third-quarter US GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data. Although expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tightening continue to support the Australian dollar, stronger US economic figures could reinforce demand for the greenback and limit the pair's near-term upside. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, rose approximately 0.1% to around 102.20 during Thursday's European session. The recovery followed Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged within the 3.75%–4.00% target range. With the latest policy decision largely anticipated, attention has shifted toward incoming economic data and the outlook for future monetary policy. Preliminary third-quarter GDP figures and the PCE price index are expected to provide important clues about the strength of the US economy and the persistence of inflationary pressures. TD Securities expects the upcoming data to demonstrate continued economic resilience, with third-quarter GDP growth projected to accelerate to 2.5% from the previous 2.2%. The forecast suggests that underlying economic activity remains firm, supported by relatively robust consumption and investment, even as net exports and inventory changes could weigh on the headline growth figure. The core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, is expected to increase to 3.1% year-on-year from 3.0%. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce concerns that inflation remains persistent, potentially supporting the dollar by increasing expectations that US monetary policy will remain restrictive. Conversely, weaker growth or softer inflation figures could undermine the greenback and give AUD/USD room to recover toward its recent highs. The combination of GDP growth and inflation data will therefore be important in determining whether the dollar's latest rebound develops into a more sustained move. The Australian dollar continues to receive fundamental support from stronger-than-expected domestic inflation data. September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 4.3% year-on-year, exceeding the market forecast of 4.2% and accelerating from 4.0% in August. The increase reflects higher housing and transportation costs, reinforcing concerns that inflationary pressures remain persistent across parts of the Australian economy. The latest figures, together with third-quarter inflation data, have strengthened market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia could raise interest rates at its November policy meeting. However, the RBA's eventual decision will depend on the broader inflation outlook, domestic demand, and the extent to which price pressures prove persistent. Meanwhile, stronger US economic data could offset some of the Australian dollar's policy-driven advantage, leaving AUD/USD sensitive to developments on both sides of the Pacific. AUD/USD is trading near 0.7035 after recovering from the 0.6900 region. The H4 timeframe maintains a constructive outlook as price holds above the rising 20-period and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs), which currently provide dynamic support around 0.7000–0.7015. A key H4 demand zone has formed between 0.6980 and 0.7010, where buyers previously entered aggressively and helped drive the latest recovery. As long as this area remains intact, the broader short-term structure continues to favor further upside attempts. On the H1 chart, price is also trading above the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, with the shorter average trending higher and providing immediate support near 0.7025–0.7030. A tighter intraday demand zone sits between 0.7010 and 0.7025, where buyers could attempt to stabilize the pair following its pullback from 0.7068. Immediate resistance is located around 0.7050–0.7060, where sellers have repeatedly limited advances. The broader resistance zone lies between 0.7055 and 0.7065, encompassing the recent high area. A decisive break above this region could open the way toward the stronger supply band between 0.7080 and 0.7100. On the downside, the psychological 0.7000 level represents the first important support threshold. A move below this level would bring the 0.6980–0.6990 demand region into focus. If selling pressure intensifies and price breaks below the 50-period SMA and the broader H4 demand zone, the next potential downside target lies near 0.6950. The near-term outlook for AUD/USD remains cautiously bullish while the pair holds above its key moving averages and defends the 0.6980–0.7010 H4 demand zone. Expectations of another RBA rate increase provide fundamental support for the Australian dollar, although stronger US growth and inflation data could strengthen the greenback and delay further gains. A sustained move above 0.7065 would reinforce the recovery and expose the 0.7080–0.7100 resistance area. Conversely, a decisive break below 0.7000 would weaken the short-term structure and increase the risk of a deeper correction toward 0.6980–0.6990 and potentially 0.6950.