FX.co ★ KHALISA | XAU/USD

On the H1 timeframe, XAUUSD is currently in a crucial phase after experiencing deep selling pressure reaching 3905.80. The price appears to have just broken through the lower Bollinger Bands with a very long candle, indicating that this downward movement is already in a fairly extreme oversold condition. In such conditions, it's perfectly natural for the market not to immediately continue its decline, but rather to require a corrective phase first to neutralize the pressure. This oversold condition is precisely what I'm waiting for. Entry at the current price around 3905 is less than ideal in terms of risk, as it's already too far from the upper structure and prone to a technical rebound. Chasing sells in a lower area like this actually increases the potential for being dragged down by a correction. Therefore, a healthier scenario is to allow the price to correct upwards first before seeking selling opportunities in line with the still dominant downward trend. Based on the visible structure, there are two very interesting areas to watch. The first is the lower breakout area, which is now resistance at around 3986.85, which coincides with the lower green box. This area was previously a consolidation and support zone, and after being broken through with strong momentum, it has the potential to transform into solid resistance. The second, more ideal area is the upper supply level at 4061.37, also marked by the upper green box. This 4061 area was a fairly strong supply area from October 22nd to 27th, where the price held up several times. Confirming the momentum, the MACD indicator on H1 provides a signal that supports this corrective plan. The MACD value is at -22.179 with a signal of -27.709, and the histogram has reached a depth of -36.844. However, it's worth noting that the seller histogram appears to be thinning and sloping upward after a sharp decline. This indicates that seller volume is weakening and selling pressure is less intense than before. This weakening of seller volume usually marks the beginning of an upward correction. Based on the analysis above, my strategy is to wait for this correction. I won't force a sell entry below, but instead wait for the price to rise again to test the 3986.85 area as a breakout retest. If the correction momentum is strong enough, I'll wait until the supply level of 4061.37 is reached. In both areas, I'll look for clear confirmation of rejection before re-entering the sell position, targeting a continued decline as shown by the arrow projection on the chart.