FX.co ★ MMC | XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold (XAU/USD) holds robust intraday gains near its weekly peak, with the spot price remaining well above the $4,000 psychological level in the early European session on Wednesday. In contrast, the US Dollar (USD) remains under broad-based pressure. Democrats' victory in both the House and Senate makes gridlock in the capital likely. Further, the increased political risk encouraged traders to move towards safe-haven assets, leading to a decline in US bond yields. Nevertheless, the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) failed to support gold in building on the modest intraday gain. As per the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, market participants see a close to 80% probability of another hike in the US central bank's borrowing rates in December. Traders grew more confident after the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, better known as the JOLTS report, released Tuesday by the Labor Department, which showed hiring was fairly stable in September. Indeed, job openings climbed to 7.523 million in the month under review. This, combined with robust economic growth and stubborn inflation, boosts the likelihood of a Fed rate hike, keeping the non-yielding yellow metal below the $3,970 resistance level. On the other hand, the geopolitical risk premium persists even as there is a push for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war, which has lasted eight months. In recent updates, President Donald Trump has told the Financial Times that the US does not have any intention to attack Iran despite the hints of an attack made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week. On the other hand, a senior Iranian official has told Reuters that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened only when the sanctions are waived, and the US naval blockade ends. Besides, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran has said that four tankers have been blown up after coming across mines south of the Strait of Hormuz. Traders now have Wednesday's US economic calendar data releases to look forward to, including the ADP Employment Report and ISM Services PMI. Beyond that, forthcoming geopolitical headlines may offer some motivation for the yellow metal. But attention remains fixed on the highly anticipated US employment numbers for the month, famously called the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. This data will affect USD demand and shape the precious metal's path in the coming days. However, given the above-mentioned fundamentals, it is wise to wait for confirmation of follow-through buying before concluding that the XAU/USD pair has hit rock bottom and setting sights on continuing its upward recovery trend from the lowest level seen since September 2025 last Friday. On the other hand, the XAU/USD pair carries a bearish outlook below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and all critical Fibonacci retracement levels of the decline from the October mid-highs, with the 23.6% retracement level standing as an immediate overhead resistance near $3,947 before the $3,970 region. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.94 hovers near neutrality, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive at 6.65. However, a break above the $3,970 resistance will take the pair to the 38.2% level near $3,995 before price moves toward the 50.0% retracement at $4,033. Above these levels, the 100-period SMA at $4,057 and the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels near $4,072 and $4,127, respectively, will come into view before the cycle high near $4,197. On the flip side, the primary structural support will be seen around the Fibonacci anchor near $3,869.