FX.co ★ Crude | XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold (XAU/USD) staged a strong recovery on Monday, kicking off a pivotal week as prices climbed back above the $4,100 level, reaching an intraday high of approximately $4,121.77. This rapid rebound offset Friday’s losses, which had followed a significant U.S. labor market report showing an increase of 165,000 non-farm payroll jobs in October—surpassing market expectations of 65,000—while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Although these robust employment figures briefly bolstered the U.S. dollar and benchmark Treasury yields (with the CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicating that market expectations for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December rose to around 80%), the dollar faced renewed downward pressure on Monday. Meanwhile, an easing of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran led to a decline in global oil prices, significantly alleviating market concerns regarding medium-term inflation. Furthermore, U.S. President Donald Trump stated over the weekend that the likelihood of a new U.S. military strike against Iran is extremely low as long as ongoing diplomatic negotiations continue—a remark that bolstered market sentiment. At the same time, growing optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade prospects has not only fueled a greater appetite for risk across global markets but has also supported the recovery in gold prices. On Monday, China’s Ministry of Finance announced a two-month extension to the suspension of 24% tariffs on U.S. imports, effective November 10—a move that has reinforced the "tariff truce" between the world’s two largest economies. Actual demand from key Asian markets also served as a positive factor; according to Reuters, as major ****** holidays approached, local buyers rushed to purchase gold following a drop in spot prices to a seven-month low, leading to a notable recovery in gold acquisitions. Nevertheless, ahead of the release of critical U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday, financial market participants remained cautious regarding gold’s ability to hold above $4,100 and sustain its upward trajectory. A sudden acceleration in core inflation could bolster market expectations for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, which would increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, thereby reigniting downward pressure on the metal. From a technical perspective, the daily gold chart shows a short-term positive rebound within an overall constrained structure; however, spot prices remain below key medium- to long-term moving averages. Dynamic resistance levels above the current price include the 50-day simple moving average (at $4,191.19) and the 100-day simple moving average (at $4,201.38). Meanwhile, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)—situated at a higher level of $4,458.02—serves as a key structural peak within the long-term trend. Momentum indicators show a slight improvement, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 52; this suggests that while current buying pressure has stabilized, upside potential remains limited until gold decisively breaks through major resistance levels. For the bulls to reverse the technical market trend and initiate a broader recovery, gold prices must close firmly above the consolidation zone—defined by the range between $4,191 and $4,201—on the daily chart. On the downside, the 21-day SMA (at approximately $4,069.59) provides initial dynamic support. A breach of this key support level would invalidate the current short-term rally; even with the RSI currently in a neutral-to-bullish zone, gold could still face a deeper technical correction.