FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

XAUUSD M30 Complete Technical Analysis Based on FVG Order Block Liquidity and Market Structure 1 XAUUSD M30 Overall Market Structure The overall M30 structure has shifted toward a bearish direction after rejection from the major supply zone. Price previously advanced toward the 4150 region, but buyers failed to maintain the upward momentum. Sellers subsequently established a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming increasing bearish pressure. The decline from approximately 4113 toward 3983 demonstrates that sellers have maintained control over recent price movements. The latest candles indicate that price is testing an important demand region rather than showing a confirmed bullish reversal. Therefore, the overall structure remains bearish until a meaningful bullish MSS develops. 2 Major Supply Zone Bearish Rejection The major supply zone is positioned approximately between 4145 and 4174, where price previously experienced significant selling pressure. The chart shows that buyers attempted to extend the upward movement into this region, but strong bearish rejection followed. This reaction indicates that sellers were willing to defend the higher price levels and prevent further bullish expansion. Following the rejection, price moved downward and gradually established a bearish sequence. The supply region therefore remains an important resistance area for future price reactions. Any recovery toward this zone should be monitored carefully for another possible bearish rejection. 3 Order Block Supply Strong Selling Pressure The supply order block represents an important institutional selling area near the upper resistance region. Price entered this zone after a bullish advance, but the subsequent rejection demonstrated that buying pressure was unable to sustain the breakout. The strong downward displacement following this reaction supports the bearish interpretation of the zone. If price returns toward the supply order block, traders should observe whether bearish candles develop again. A rejection accompanied by increasing bearish momentum could create another downside opportunity. A sustained move above the supply region would weaken the existing bearish outlook. 4 Bearish Rejection Scenario The bearish rejection scenario remains the primary directional interpretation of the current chart. Price reached the upper supply region and failed to establish acceptance above the resistance area. Following this rejection, sellers generated a substantial downward movement through several important price levels. The market then continued forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming bearish structural pressure. If the current demand region fails to hold, further downside movement could develop as additional liquidity becomes available below recent lows. However, a bearish continuation should be confirmed through a decisive break and candle closure below demand. 5 Fair Value Gap Zones Several Fair Value Gap zones are visible across the chart, representing areas where price previously moved with strong displacement. The first visible FVG appears around the 4090 to 4100 region, while another imbalance is positioned near the 3983 to 3998 area. These zones may attract future price reactions because price can revisit inefficiently traded areas. The upper FVG could act as resistance during a recovery if sellers defend the imbalance. The lower FVG is particularly important because it overlaps with the current demand region. Traders should monitor candle reactions inside these zones rather than assuming every imbalance must be filled. 6 MSS Market Structure Shift The MSS marking around the 4093 region highlights an important structural transition during the earlier bullish movement. Before the subsequent decline, price demonstrated an attempt to change its previous directional behavior. This structural development helped establish the earlier bullish recovery toward higher resistance levels. However, the later rejection from supply changed the market's immediate direction and weakened the bullish structure. The current chart does not yet demonstrate a confirmed bullish reversal at the latest demand area. A fresh bullish MSS above nearby lower highs would provide stronger evidence that buyers are regaining control. 7 BOS Break of Structure The BOS marking around the 4110 region identifies an important structural breakout during the previous bullish expansion. Price moved above an earlier structural level and demonstrated that buyers had temporarily gained directional strength. This breakout contributed to the upward movement toward the major supply region. However, the bullish breakout did not produce a sustained continuation because sellers eventually entered the market. The subsequent bearish displacement indicates that the previous bullish structure lost strength. A new bullish BOS would be necessary to confirm a meaningful recovery from the current demand region.

8 Strong Bullish Move Momentum Expansion The chart identifies a strong bullish momentum expansion during the recovery from the lower price region. This movement consisted of decisive upward candles that demonstrated aggressive buying activity and rapid price displacement. The expansion also created visible imbalance areas that later became relevant during the subsequent decline. Despite this earlier strength, buyers could not maintain control near the upper supply region. The market eventually reversed and produced a much stronger bearish sequence. Therefore, the previous bullish expansion should be considered historical buying strength rather than confirmation of the current bullish direction. 9 Order Block Demand Major Buying Zone The major demand order block is located around the 3965 to 3984 region, making it the most important nearby support area. Current price is trading close to the upper boundary of this demand zone, which means buyers have an opportunity to defend the region. The historical reaction around this area may attract buying interest and potentially create a short-term recovery. However, demand alone does not guarantee a bullish reversal because sellers can still break through the zone. A strong bullish candle formation followed by a structural breakout would improve the recovery outlook. Until that confirmation appears, the demand region should be treated as a critical decision area. 10 Current Price Action Near 3983 The current displayed price is approximately 3983.40, placing the market directly around the upper boundary of the major demand region. Recent candles show that price has experienced substantial downward pressure from the previous recovery high near 4060. Sellers have pushed the market toward the 3992 and 3983 price levels, indicating continued bearish pressure. The latest candles show some reaction around the lower region, but the evidence is not sufficient to confirm a complete bullish reversal. Buyers need to demonstrate stronger upward displacement to change the immediate structure. A decisive breakdown below demand would instead strengthen the bearish continuation scenario. 11 Sell Side Liquidity SSL Sell side liquidity is particularly important around the recent lows and beneath the major demand region. The market has already moved downward toward these liquidity areas after establishing a sequence of lower highs. The current price action suggests that sellers may be targeting resting liquidity below the recent support levels. A liquidity sweep could occur if price briefly moves beneath the previous lows before recovering strongly. Such a movement would become more meaningful if followed by a bullish MSS and strong displacement. Traders should therefore distinguish between a genuine bearish breakdown and a temporary liquidity grab. 12 FVG And Order Block Relationship The relationship between Fair Value Gaps and order blocks is important because both concepts help identify potential reaction areas. The lower FVG overlaps with the major demand order block around the current 3983 price region. This confluence creates an important technical area where buyers may attempt to defend the market. If price reacts positively from this combined zone, a short-term recovery toward nearby resistance could develop. Conversely, if sellers establish strong candle closes below the overlapping region, the demand structure could weaken significantly. The reaction of price within this combined area will help determine the next directional movement. 13 Bullish Continuation Scenario The bullish continuation scenario requires buyers to defend the current demand order block and establish stronger upward momentum. A successful reaction around 3983 could initially encourage a recovery toward 3992 and 4013. If bullish pressure continues, price may attempt to reach the 4033 and 4053 resistance regions. A stronger recovery toward 4073 would require a confirmed bullish BOS and sustained buying activity. The green projection on the chart represents this possible recovery path rather than a guaranteed market movement. Without structural confirmation, the bullish scenario remains conditional. 14 Bearish Continuation Scenario The bearish continuation scenario becomes stronger if price fails to maintain support around the current demand region. A decisive M30 candle close below the 3983 area would indicate that sellers are gaining further control. Such a breakdown could expose liquidity beneath the recent lows and create additional downside pressure. Any temporary recovery toward broken support could then become a potential resistance retest. Continued lower highs and lower lows would reinforce the bearish market structure. However, the chart does not provide confirmed future downside targets, so additional levels should be identified only after a genuine breakdown develops. 15 Final Outlook Bullish Structure At Major Demand The final outlook remains cautiously bearish because the broader M30 structure continues to show lower highs, lower lows, and strong rejection from major supply. However, price is now testing a significant demand order block around 3983.40, where the lower FVG provides an additional technical confluence. This area could produce a temporary bullish recovery if buyers successfully defend the zone and establish a fresh MSS. A confirmed BOS above nearby resistance would strengthen the bullish reversal possibility. On the other hand, a decisive breakdown below demand would favor further bearish continuation. The most important decision is whether buyers can defend 3983 or sellers can establish acceptance below it.