FX.co ★ Sud | GBP/USD

The British pound fell against the US dollar for the third consecutive day—marking a decline in five of the last six sessions—and reached a four-week low during Thursday’s Asian trading session. The spot price is currently hovering just above the 1.3250 level, pressured by a broad-based rally in the US dollar. Recent data showed US consumer inflation running higher than anticipated, prompting several Federal Reserve officials to adopt a hawkish tone, which has bolstered market expectations for further monetary policy tightening. Investors and interest-rate futures traders are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for December; some market participants are even considering the prospect of a 50-basis-point increase. This hawkish outlook regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy path—compounded by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, which has spurred capital flows into safe-haven assets—has pushed the US Dollar Index to its highest level since April 2025, creating significant macroeconomic headwinds for the British pound. Despite these intense downward pressures, the Bank of England’s own hawkish monetary policy stance has provided some partial support for the pound’s fundamentals. However, given the impending release of a series of significant macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom—including monthly and quarterly GDP growth reports, industrial production figures, and trade balance indicators—market participants remain cautious, showing reluctance to establish large long positions. From a technical analysis perspective, the exchange rate fell below the key psychological level of 1.3300 overnight, also dropping beneath the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally that began from the October lows. This served as a decisive catalyst for bearish market participants to take action. Furthermore, on the four-hour chart, the spot exchange rate continues to trade below a downward-sloping 100-period simple moving average (currently around 1.3381), reinforcing a bearish short-term outlook. This technical weakness, combined with the recent failure of buyers to sustain the critical 1.3500 level, strongly suggests that the "path of least resistance" for the GBP/USD pair remains firmly to the downside. Momentum indicators also confirm this bearish bias: the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 26—well within oversold territory—indicating that downward pressure has reached an extreme level, yet no clear reversal signal or bullish divergence has emerged. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in negative territory below the zero line, characterized by a flat trend and weak momentum. This increases the likelihood of further declines, targeting the 1.3216 level (the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level), followed by a more significant medium-term support level—a key structural low established at the recent cyclical bottom (around 1.3138). Conversely, should the exchange rate experience an intraday corrective rebound, it will immediately encounter initial technical resistance near the 1.3278 level (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Should the rise continue, it will face a series of resistance levels, including 1.3321 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.3364 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Furthermore, the 100-period Simple Moving Average (at 1.3381) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (at 1.3417) together form a robust resistance zone. As long as the current price remains below these key technical levels, any significant corrective rebound will be constrained.