FX.co ★ Crude | CL/Crude Oil

On Thursday morning, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI)—the U.S. benchmark—fluctuated around $84.75 per barrel during European trading, continuing its previous decline. While the market remained optimistic about potential diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, it also showed concern regarding an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories. Reports indicated that Russian and Ukrainian negotiators concluded two days of peace talks in Abu Dhabi, reaching an agreement on a large-scale prisoner exchange—a development that added selling pressure to the energy market. Although U.S. mediators acknowledged that fundamental disagreements remain over key border issues, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed hope for tangible progress toward ending the conflict within the year. Simultaneously, market expectations for a potential easing of diplomatic tensions between Washington and Tehran weighed on market sentiment. Hiroyuki Kikukawa, a senior strategist at Nissan Securities, noted that the drop in crude oil prices reflects traders' anticipation of efforts toward an informal ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Furthermore, given the upcoming U.S.-China summit next week, the likelihood of military escalation against Iran is considered low. Nevertheless, Kikukawa warned that persistent uncertainty regarding maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz could prevent a sharp collapse in energy prices. A significant surge in U.S. crude oil inventories has exacerbated supply-related concerns, fueling fears of a glut in the global energy market. Data showed an increase of 9 million barrels in U.S. crude stocks—reversing a previous downward trend and starkly contradicting market expectations of a 1-million-barrel decline—which highlights recent weak demand relative to domestic supply. Meanwhile, due to the Veterans Day holiday in the United States, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly petroleum status report has been delayed until Thursday. In the broader geopolitical context, analysts at Commerzbank noted that the oil market remains highly volatile as investors assess whether Democratic control of the U.S. Congress might accelerate a diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Commerzbank added that while reports suggesting Tehran is reviewing proposals regarding its nuclear program have sparked some optimism, market sentiment remains fragile, given the absence of a final, comprehensive agreement and the ongoing risks to navigation in the Persian Gulf. This is evident from the historical price movements of Brent crude, where prices fluctuated near high levels before retreating in tandem with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. From a technical analysis perspective, the daily chart for WTI crude shows that spot prices are undergoing a corrective phase, trading consistently below key moving averages and the middle Bollinger Band—a clear indication of a short-term bearish bias. Prices continue to face resistance below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), while the lower Bollinger Band provides initial dynamic support during intraday pullbacks. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 34—nearing oversold territory—suggesting that bearish momentum persists, though no clear bullish reversal signal has emerged yet. On the upside, immediate technical resistance lies at the 100-day SMA (approximately $86.80), followed by the middle Bollinger Band (around $94.95). Should a stronger rebound occur, the upper Bollinger Band ($107.45) would serve as a long-term structural ceiling. On the downside, initial support is found near the lower Bollinger Band ($82.45). A decisive break below this technical support level on the daily chart would strengthen the sellers' control and could lead to further declines in the coming days.